Foreign Currency

Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.

While perceived as a relief for many equity investors, halting QT might not actually be the good news equities investors are hoping for. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics. 

Nowhere in Homer’s pages however do you ever read zero interest rates.

So that is how extraordinary and abnormal the last 10 years has been. Human history has not hitherto experienced the zero interest rates we have all now experienced in the last decade or so. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Bitcoin recently hit another new all-time high just above US$124,000, reflecting a bull story that has matured from a niche tech narrative into a macro thesis with institutional support. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency.

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Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, has spent his career chronicling the anatomy of financial collapses. In his latest article for Foreign Affairs (Sep/Oct 2025), Rogoff issues a stark warning: the U.S. is flirting with a once-in-a-century debt crisis – and its current political and economic trajectory makes a crisis not just possible, but probable. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The Magnificent Seven; Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued its strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar year 2024. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Market commentary.

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The latest data out of China reveals the country is sliding deeper into deflation. In May 2025, consumer prices fell 0.1 per cent year-on-year, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, while producer prices plunged 3.3 per cent – the steepest drop since mid-2023. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Market commentary.

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An article published by the Shanghai Metal Market on 7 June 2025, revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, up 60,000 ounces month-on-month. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued their strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 37 per cent, on average, over the six months to June 2024. This helped drag up the Nasdaq, which jumped 18.1 per cent and 28.5 per cent for the 6 and 12 months to June 2024, respectively. The S&P 500 also did very well, up 22.7 per cent for the year and up 14.5 per cent for the six months to June 2024.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency.

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I was very lucky to attend the Harvard Business School Owner/ Presidents Management program over the three years to 2006. In my class of 100 mature–age students, around half were from the U.S., and the remainder were from several other countries. I know it is a gross generalisation, but it would be fair to say the U.S. students excelled at any “marketing” related case studies but noticeably under-performed in any case studies related to “accounting”.  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency.

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