articles by Tim Kelley
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After its price dip, is Telstra now good value?
Tim Kelley
May 24, 2017
Telstra (TLS) is not high on the list of businesses we would most like to own. Having said that, it is not a terrible business, and at the right price it makes sense to own it, particularly given its steady dividend stream. So, with TLS’s share price down around 20 percent over the past year, we decided to assess its value. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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How to use shrinkage to fine-tune your forecasts
Tim Kelley
May 9, 2017
The acclaimed economist, John Kenneth Galbraith, once quipped: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Sometimes, it feels like the same can be said of investment forecasting, because predicting the future is not easy. But there are tools we can use to help minimise errors. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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Are there good times ahead for the Montgomery Alpha Plus Fund?
Tim Kelley
April 28, 2017
In August 2016, we launched the newest fund in the Montgomery stable – the Montgomery Alpha Plus Fund – a “market neutral” fund designed to deliver positive returns over long time frames regardless of the overall direction of equity markets. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Montgomery News and Updates.
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What does business quality mean for long-term returns?
Tim Kelley
April 26, 2017
Today Tim Kelley discusses business quality – what it is, why we focus on it, and what it means for long-term investment returns.
by Tim Kelley Posted in Video Insights.
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Why the trend can (often) be your friend
Tim Kelley
April 21, 2017
At Montgomery Investment Management, our philosophy is based on owning businesses with future cash flows that are expected to be large compared with their market value. Fundamental analysis is not the only way to think about equities, but it has a strong intuitive appeal, sound theoretical underpinnings, and has been applied to good effect by a number of very successful investors over the years. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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When directors sell, should you sell too?
Tim Kelley
April 11, 2017
When directors buy or sell shares in their company, most people believe they are sending a strong signal to the market about the firm’s prospects. But how strong is the correlation between director trades and share price movements? And should you buy or sell because a director has too? In this article for Cuffelinks, Tim Kelley does some research to get closer to the truth. Read here.
by Tim Kelley Posted in On the Internet.
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After a hefty price fall, is IPH now good value?
Tim Kelley
April 10, 2017
IPH Limited (IPH) listed at $2.00 in late 2014 and soared to over $9.00 just one year later. The market clearly liked the story. But for the past 12 months, the share price has steadily declined and IPH now trades around $5.00. After this sort of a fall, we had a good look at the business to see if IPH had become a bargain.
Continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies.
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Why we think BWX is worth watching
Tim Kelley
March 23, 2017
A little-known company we hold is BWX Limited. This small Melbourne-based company owns a range of skin and hair care brands. It also manufactures cosmetics for third parties. Shares in BWX began trading on the ASX in November 2015 at $2.12. They have doubled since then, and we think there’s more good news ahead. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies.
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Why Chorus Limited looks undervalued
Tim Kelley
March 16, 2017
One slightly unusual holding in our domestic funds is Chorus Limited (CNU), New Zealand’s largest owner of telecommunications networks. CNU has had a bumpy ride this last year, but we think the market has marked it down too far due to regulatory uncertainty. If we are right, then the company should re-rate. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Update on Isentia
Tim Kelley
March 10, 2017
Following our earlier comments on the Isentia (ASX:ISD) result, we have now met with management, of Isentia as well as major competitor, Meltwater, and formed a view on our holding. Our view may change as new information comes to hand over time, but for the time being we have settled a position, and can outline our decision and rationale. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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