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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to unpack two of the most talked-about assets right now – gold and Bitcoin. We explored why gold has surged to record highs, and I explained why investors often turn to it in times of uncertainty. Gold can feel like a safe haven against fears of currency devaluation, central bank policy shifts, or geopolitical risks, but at its core, it’s more of a bet on fear than a long-term investment. I also touched on the practical ways Australians can gain exposure to gold, from bullion and exchange-traded funds to gold mining shares, and the unique costs and risks attached to each. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In what is yet another controversial move, US President Donald Trump has asserted federal authority over the Washington, D.C., police department while mobilising 800 National Guard troops to the nation’s capital. He frames the move and deployment as a necessary response to rampant crime, but critics argue it reveals deeper authoritarian tendencies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Video Insights.

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In this week’s video insight I take a closer look at record stock markets, what’s driving them to new highs, and what that might mean for investors. The S&P 500 is trading at historic levels on measures such as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, with much of the enthusiasm powered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Companies are spending billions on cloud, semiconductors and infrastructure, while revenues are still catching up. It’s an exciting period of innovation, but also one where history reminds us markets often price in future growth well before it materialises. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors. While AI may well transform industries and benefit consumers, I cautioned that the rush into AI stocks has pushed valuations to bubble-like levels, where prices assume every company will succeed – something history tells us is impossible. High valuations typically mean lower future returns, and right now U.S. stocks are at record high prices. For investors, particularly those nearing retirement, my advice was simple: regularly rebalance portfolios by trimming back exposure to overheated assets and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit, small company funds, or cash — rather than panic selling — to stay defensive while still positioned for long-term growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand, and place them in the context of each nation’s inflation and unemployment trends. Together, these snapshots highlight the mixed progress in taming inflation, the trade-offs being made, and the signals for both savers and borrowers in the year ahead.

I have tabled the cash rate movements from the Central Banks of these six Western World economies, accompanied by some brief economic observations. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath the excitement lies a complex mix of valuations, momentum, and risk – raising important questions about how investors can stay positioned if sentiment shifts.

Markets are expensive – observations and implications

There is a conga line of analysts, fund managers and commentators pointing out the extremes many traditional or conventional measures of value have now reached.  From price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and market-cap-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to earnings and dividend yields, the U.S. S&P 500 is in rarified air when it comes to the price investors are willing to pay for exposure to future growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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This morning on ABC Mornings with Paul Turton, we discussed the upcoming corporate reporting season and what it might reveal about Australia’s economic health. I noted that while markets have been strong so far this year – led by banks and tech – investors will be closely watching whether earnings justify this optimism. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle to discuss why the market is demonstrating new highs despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events, the rising risk of stagflation, and the growing threat to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence.

It appears the persistent rise in the S&P 500 is reflective of the collective excitement and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). According to sources like Gartner and Deloitte, it is expected that AI global spend will hit the US$1.5 trillion mark in the near future. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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