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Tariffs are back… bigger and better than ever
Roger Montgomery
August 12, 2025
In 2025, the U.S. enacted the most significant trade policy shift in decades, with average tariffs rising from roughly 2.4 per cent in January to approximately 18–20 per cent by August, levels not seen since the 1930s.
In some cases, duties on Chinese imports have exceeded 50 per cent, marking a sharp departure from the stable global trade arrangements of recent decades. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Polen Capital – large company growth process
Polen Capital
October 14, 2025
Hear from the team at Polen Capital as they outline their disciplined investment process that allows them to filter thousands of companies down to a focused group. By concentrating on businesses with durable advantages and essential products, they aim to build portfolios aligned with their long-standing philosophy of quality and conviction. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.
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The theatre of authoritarianism in Trump’s America
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2025
In what is yet another controversial move, US President Donald Trump has asserted federal authority over the Washington, D.C., police department while mobilising 800 National Guard troops to the nation’s capital. He frames the move and deployment as a necessary response to rampant crime, but critics argue it reveals deeper authoritarian tendencies. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Rates reset across the West
David Buckland
October 2, 2025
Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand, and place them in the context of each nation’s inflation and unemployment trends. Together, these snapshots highlight the mixed progress in taming inflation, the trade-offs being made, and the signals for both savers and borrowers in the year ahead.
I have tabled the cash rate movements from the Central Banks of these six Western World economies, accompanied by some brief economic observations. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.
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MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – the artificial intelligence boom
Roger Montgomery
September 30, 2025
I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle to discuss why the market is demonstrating new highs despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events, the rising risk of stagflation, and the growing threat to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence.
It appears the persistent rise in the S&P 500 is reflective of the collective excitement and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). According to sources like Gartner and Deloitte, it is expected that AI global spend will hit the US$1.5 trillion mark in the near future. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Did the artificial intelligence bubble just pop?
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2025
In U.S. trading overnight, Nvidia achieved a market capitalisation of US$5 trillion, after which Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google’s parent company Alphabet delivered their September quarter earnings.
The results were impressive, as expected. Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of US$77.67 billion, beating estimates of US$75.33 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.13, surpassing the US$3.67 forecast. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Is the bull market running on fumes? Warning signals mount
Roger Montgomery
October 28, 2025
On this week’s video insight, I discuss how two seemingly separate developments –Jerome Powell signalling an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and surging U.S. subprime auto loan delinquencies – may together warn that the equity bull market is running on fumes. Liquidity support could soon become more targeted, banks may tighten lending, and stretched equity valuations could face pressure. Now is a prudent time for investors to rebalance: rotating profits from high-growth names into defensives, holding some cash for volatility, and perhaps exploring adding uncorrelated assets like private credit or arbitrage funds to their portfolios. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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ABC Newcastle Mornings – reporting season preview
Roger Montgomery
August 5, 2025
This morning on ABC Mornings with Paul Turton, we discussed the upcoming corporate reporting season and what it might reveal about Australia’s economic health. I noted that while markets have been strong so far this year – led by banks and tech – investors will be closely watching whether earnings justify this optimism. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Ausbiz – the everything boom
Roger Montgomery
October 3, 2025
Yesterday on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed why record-high markets may carry more risks than opportunities. While the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has powered enthusiasm, I cautioned that valuations across the broader market are now at unprecedented levels, with all companies effectively being priced as winners – something history shows is unsustainable. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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What does the artificial intelligence boom have to do with Iron Ore?
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2025
Fourteen years ago, in 2011, a commodity boom in iron ore saw BHP’s share price hit $40 for the first time. It was the 8th of April 2011. There was great excitement, surrounding Australia being the ‘lucky’ country yet again. Peter Richardson, Morgan Stanley’s then global metals chief economist, put forward a strong investment case for the “crucial” steelmaking commodity.
We will see Morgan Stanley again soon.
By contrast, on April 11 that year we published a blog Will China demand Iron… or…?, where we wrote that iron ore prices would henceforth decline, ending the commodity boom and causing buoyant share prices to fall. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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