For decades, I have been asked if I watch the budget and analyse the government’s annual statement about income, spending, and macroeconomic forecasts. My short answer has always been, ‘no, because there’ll be another one next year.’ It sounds a little flippant and is certainly intended to be irreverent.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss how private credit funds can be an effective strategy for Australians, especially during the current cost–of–living crisis. I delve into why these funds might be a helpful addition to your investment portfolio, particularly in these challenging economic times. I provide a general overview of private credit as an asset class and explore its potential benefits, including the potential for regular income generation and risk management.   Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

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If you’re like us, you will be fascinated by lithium and electric vehicles (EVs). Before delving into the latest fascinating development, I thought it might first be worth reminding ourselves of the challenges of investing in new technologies. 

Investing in technology that advances the world must surely be a good thing? Well, evidently not.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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It has been a while since we reported on the major banks, which have now all provided half-year updates to their operating performance. 

Before reporting on their results, I think it worthwhile to provide you with a usefully simplified framework for analysing or comparing a bank’s performance.  Despite claims of complexity in their reporting and differentiation in their offerings, the big four banks are relatively simple businesses to understand at a high level, and broadly undifferentiated, offering everyday banking, loans, credit cards, wealth management and insurance.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss the transition from a long period of unusually low interest rates to what may be a new era of higher interest rates. Following the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a policy of keeping the Fed funds rate extremely low, which encouraged fiscal behaviours based on the assumption of persistent low inflation. However, recent spikes in inflation and cost of living, alongside escalating U.S. public debt and government spending, prompt a reevaluation of this policy.   Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Video Insights.

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Both sides of politics and most businesses are obsessed with a “big Australia”. Dick Smith is one of the few on the opposing side of the narrative. And as the Minns NSW Government usurps local councils’ planning powers by announcing their support for residential property located within 400 metres of a train station to be turned into 8–storey apartment blocks and within 800 metres of a train station to be turned into 6–storey apartment blocks, infrastructure will inevitably be left behind, and many streets will become a carpark. More public golf courses will likely be stolen in the name of green space.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Property.

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In last night’s ABC Nightlife interview, I joined Philip Clark to discuss the shifting landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) industry. We covered the significant drop in EV sales across Europe and debated the future sustainability of growth and market potential. Listen to the full conversation here: ABC Nightlife – ABC Nightlife – EV sales downturn.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the challenging dynamics of the Victorian rental market – a pressing issue that uniquely impacts both renters and investors. Amid a nationwide rental crisis, Victoria stands out due to its plummeting rental vacancy rates and the surprising exodus of investors from the market. Despite what seems like a prime scenario for property investors, with demand high and supply low, why are many opting to leave? I delve into the reasons behind the investor retreat, explore the economic forces at play, including significant tax increases and the broader implications of these changes.   Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Property, Video Insights.

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