TV Appearances

Imagine you inherited a portfolio that included Ausdrill (ASL), Boart Longyear (BLY), Monadelphous Group (MND), Bradken (BKN), UGL Limited (UGL), Fortescue (FMG), BlueScope (BSL), Oz Minerals (OZL), Incitec Pivot (IPL), Mirabela Nickel (MBN), Myer (MYR), Fleetwood Corp (FWD), Santos (STO), Oil Search (OSH), Reckon (RKN), Iress (IRE), Roc Oil (ROC), Webjet (WEB), Forge Group (FGE), Mineral Resources (MIN), Clean Seas Tuna (CSS), McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) and Galaxy Resources (GXY). In this appearance on Switzer TV with Peter Switzer, Roger Montgomery reveals is Quality Scores for these companies and shares his thoughts on how to manage the transition of this portfolio. Watch this interview and discover what stocks Roger would sell, and what stocks he would add to the portfolio. Watch the interview.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Media Room, TV Appearances.

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Cochlear (COH) is one of just a few Australian businesses that can be compared to the likes of Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson. So when the company recently announced a recall of its market-leading product, the share market reacted. Does Roger Montgomery believe this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to acquire shares in this extraordinary A1 company at a price less than his estimate of its Value.able intrinsic value? In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger also shares his insights on Drilltorque (DTQ), Matrix (MCE) and gold stocks Silverlake Resources (SLR) and Troy (TRY). Watch the interview.

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If Roger Montgomery had the opportunity to buy shares in Corportae Travel Management when it floated, he would have jumped at the opportunity. Today the intrinsic value of CTD is $1.58 and is forecast to rise to $1.90 over the next three years. Like Hansen Technologies (HSN), CTD achieves Roger Montgomery’s coveted A1 status. In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger also shares his Value.able insights on the demise of Leighton and the future prospects for QBE. Watch the interview.

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Australia’s one-time construction champion, Leighton Holdings, is facing a share holder class action following the recent significant decline in the companies share price. In this interview with Alan Kohler, Roger Montgomery shares his insights into the declining economics of the Leightons business. Read the transcript

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In this appearance on Switzer TV with Peter Switzer, Roger Montgomery searched through large caps, mid caps, small caps and micro caps to uncover a list of A1 and A2 businesses. He then filtered out those companies who achieve a Return on Equity greater than 20 per cent, currently offer a safety margin greater than 10 per cent and whose intrinsic value is forecast to rise by at least six per cent over the next three years. Watch this interview and discover nine companies that make Roger Montgomery’s A1 grade. Watch the interview.

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Following Woolworths latest results announcement, Roger Montgomery shares his insights on why Australia’s leading retailer failed to meet the markets expectations. Roger said ‘WOW is lowering their prices to drive profit growth, which is not sustainable or good for our country’. In this appearance on Switzer TV, Roger also highlights the key data points that investors should look for when analysing annual reports. Watch the interview.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Media Room, TV Appearances.

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When to sell Rule #1 is: No junk policy. In the second part of Roger’s selling mini-series, he identifies Rule #2: Expensive.

While market declines alone don’t prove merit in selling shares, the broad declines do suggest a disciplined approach to shares significantly above an estimate of intrinsic value is necessary. For me, if the businesses are also of a lower quality in terms of our A1-C5 ratings, for example Asciano, Amcor, Westfield or Santos – there is an additional urgency to review.

Three weeks ago these C-rated businesses were all trading at prices significantly higher than an estimate of intrinsic value. Fast-forward to today (19 August 2011) and despite the falls, Safety Margins are are stubbornly high:

Asciano: -75 per cent
Amcor: -39 per cent
Westifeld: -46 per cent
Santos: -76 per cent

For us, it is neither here nor there whether you agree with our valuations and therefore Safety Margins. What is important for us and the portfolio we manage, is the combination of quality and value. In the absence of either trait, we would be unlikely to remain a holder of the shares.

It can be potentially permanent devastating holding shares in poor quality businesses at prices significantly above value.

Imagine you acquired shares in a business today for $2 and estimated those shares to be worth $4, rising to $4.10 the following year. Then suppose after six months the share price rises to $3.00.  What would you do?   Value.able Graduates, are expected to answer that question correctly.  Now imagine the price of those same shares has risen to $6 in the same time frame. Would your answer change?

It may be tempting to set up some hard and fast rules about when to sell. I am not as comfortable with this approach as I am with the idea that the appropriate premium above intrinsic value at which to sell depends on the future prospect for the company and therefore its intrinsic value for the future.

Your response may be that there is greater uncertainty in future valuations. If that is your view, then you should sell.

Whilst we should not try to predict the future, it is important to look through a conservative telescope. What will be the value of each company in your portfolio next year? And the following year? Understanding the business and using that understanding to help establish prospects for intrinsic value appreciation in the future is a vital component of the Value.able approach, we advocate here.

If you are yet to join the Graduate Class, order your copy of Value.able immediately at ‪http://www.rogermontgomery.com/. Once you have 1. read Value.able and 2. changed some part of the way you think about the stock market, my team and I will be delighted to officially welcome you as a Graduate of the Class of 2011 (and invite you to become a founding member of our soon-to-be-released next-generation A1 service).

Value.able TV #5 was recorded at Montgomery HQ on 19 August 2011.

Posted by Roger Montgomery’s A1 team, fund managers and creators of the next-generation A1 service for stock market investors, 19 August 2011.

Visit ‪‪http://www.rogermontgomery.com/ for Roger Montgomery’s step-by-step guide to valuing the best stocks and buying them for less than they’re worth.

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In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger Montgomery answers viewer questions on McMillan Shakespeare (ASX:MMS),  Ansell (ASX:ANN) Think Smart (ASX:TSM), Thorn Group (ASX:TGA), GR Engineering (ASX:GNG) and Technology One (ASX:TNE). Roger also reveals which gold stock continues to attract his Value.able eye? Watch the interview.

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Your teenager wants to invest in the stock market. They have $6000 sitting in an ‘advantage saver’. What should they do? Roger Montgomery suggests this young investor seek out businesses with high rates of return on equity, little or no debt and bright prospects. The final step is to ensure shares in such businesses are acquired at prices less than they’re worth. In this interview Roger also shares his suggested portfolio allocation strategy to minimise risk for this young investor and reveals why he was pleased by Credit Corps (ASX:CCP) full-year results. Watch the interview.

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In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger Montgomery reveals nine extraordinary businesses he recently acquired for The Montgomery [Private] Fund. Roger urges investors not to be fearful of market downturns, but rather embrace the opportunity to acquire extraordinary A1 businesses for prices less than they’re worth. Roger also answers viewers’ questions on Forge (ASX:FGE), Macmahon Holdings (ASX:MAH) and Decmil (ASX:DCG) – whose intrinsic value is forecast to rise to above $8 by 2013? Watch the interview.

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