Market commentary

On Monday night, the US markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday but Greece was not sleeping comfortably.

To understand whether there are risks to your wealth from Greece’s posturing (and remember the US markets return to work tonight) it pays to understand where we are currently and how we arrived at this juncture. If you would like to know more read on. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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For the historically minded reader you will note that this title was a famous quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the grandfather of Keynesian economics. The quote is said to have been made by Keynes as he commented on the harsh post-war conditions placed on Germany at Versailles in 1919. In short, one condition required that Germany repay the Allies for the cost of the war. continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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We have found the market to be a little frustrating in recent times. Through the various market ups and downs the sort of high quality companies we like to invest in have generally remained well-supported, whereas many of the lower-quality companies – a large number of them related to resources, have been getting cheaper.  Given the uncertain prospects for this latter group, our overall feeling is that the market does not offer particularly good value at the moment, and we have a significant proportion of our funds in cash. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Is the chest beating and plumage preening about and over the Free Trade Agreement a bit of a joke?

Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Josh Frydenberg, said the deal to be signed today with China could be worth (note the word ‘could’) up to $18 billion to the Australian economy over the next few years.  I think he actually said 10 years.  If that’s the case, it’s worth $1.8 billion per year.

Let’s put that into context.  Our total annual iron ore exports are 600 million tonnes.  At US$80/tonne, the total value is A$56 billion.  The total value of the FTA could be wiped out by a US$2.79/tonne move in the iron ore price.

The full terms of the deal are expected to be signed this afternoon and the details released then also. Stay tuned.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Consistently beating the market is clearly not an easy thing to do. Analysis of fund manager performance typically shows that a large proportion of them do not add enough value to cover their fees.

Some of them – admittedly – may not be trying all that hard. A manager who has accumulated many billions of dollars of funds under management (FUM) over the years potentially has a lot to lose from trying to beat the index, and maybe not much to gain. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Last week we spent some time reporting on our thoughts regarding the Financial System Inquiry and our interpretation of the submissions we’d read, as well as the possible impact on the competitive landscape for the big banks and their smaller, regional, would-be rivals… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Market commentary.

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Businessweek reports: “Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, who oversees the largest manager of alternative assets as Chief Executive Officer of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), said the recent declines in financial markets are an “overreaction.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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Nobody is always right. With that said, it’s only natural that we gravitate in our listening to those we have seen demonstrate a notable track record. Humans are notoriously bad at picking turning points, so we like those rare canaries that have got it right more than once. Robert Shiller is one of those guys, and what makes him especially worthy of your attention is that he hasn’t been successful by forecasting frequently. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In my morning news trawl, I came across an interesting article on Bloomberg this morning. I have copied an excerpt below, and should you be so inclined, you can read the full article here. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In their recently released report entitled Investing in the future: How megatrends are reshaping the future of the investment management industry, KPMG looked at – amongst other things – analysing the economic and social risks associated with scarcity. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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