Market commentary
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Does it really matter if the RBA cuts again?
Roger Montgomery
May 16, 2019
The Reserve Bank of Australia recently opted to leave interest rates on hold. But with key parts of the economy in decline, it may be just a matter of time before it has to cut again. The question is: how effective will a rate cut be? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Are today’s high asset prices worth the risk?
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2019
Central banks have signalled that, if required, they would support their economies by cutting rates even further. This means markets are not likely to crash any time soon. But with most asset prices quite toppy, are investment returns worth the risk of something going wrong? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Are we reading bond market signals the wrong way?
Roger Montgomery
April 10, 2019
There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the yield curve as much as exuberance in stocks themselves? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Three observations from China’s economy important to Australian investors
Roger Montgomery
April 4, 2019
There’s a lot going on to keep our attention this year. Our expectations remain that volatility has returned to more normal levels, after a long period of minimal volatility. And there are many triggers for volatility. However, investors should also be keeping an eye on China. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Could Australia’s short-term rates hit Zero?
Roger Montgomery
March 27, 2019
A growing band of commentators are pondering whether Australian rates might fall further. Importantly, for investors, rate cuts from already ultra-low levels should have a positive effect on asset prices – particularly property – but the effect could be more muted, even with strong debt serviceability, given already record levels of household debt. Begging the question of whether the RBA has something else in its arsenal. Under most scenarios it does appear as though housing will be a low return asset class for some time. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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BUSINESS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE GETTING WORSE
Andreas Lundberg
March 14, 2019
NAB’s February business survey, published 12 March, paints a truly bleak picture, particularly for retailers. It shows that Australian business conditions – namely, sales and profitability – are worsening at an accelerating pace. Not surprisingly, business confidence is also on the skids. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Why we’re excited about the next market sell-off
Roger Montgomery
March 11, 2019
I think we could see another meaningful pullback in global equities, triggered by volatility in U.S. bond markets. It’s a scenario we are looking forward to as it creates a fresh opportunity to invest in quality businesses at the right price. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Say farewell to the infrastructure boom
Andreas Lundberg
March 6, 2019
In recent years, state budgets have benefited from rising revenues, particularly from stamp duty. But now that revenue stream is being squeezed, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria. This decline in revenue could be a real issue for businesses that rely on state infrastructure spending. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Does criticism of Buffett signal a market top?
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2019
For 10 years now, the S&P 500 has been on a run, soaring from under 800 points to around 2800 points. But is this as good as it gets for now? Warren Buffett seems to think so. And criticism of his recent investment decisions could signal that the market is due a breather. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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How much volatility should we expect in 2019?
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2019
The recent gyrations in world markets have befuddled investors, short sellers and commentators alike. I think we’ll see more of the same in 2019/20. Will this present good buying opportunities for investors who like to buy on the dips? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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