Market commentary
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Is it time to get back in?
Roger Montgomery
April 2, 2020
With so many companies now trading at cut-price valuations, many of our readers are asking whether it’s time to start buying again. Over the past six weeks many companies are down. And some of them are very high quality indeed. A new reality exists, and one with the same opportunities as 1987. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – An update on the US
Gary Rollo
April 2, 2020
With the data and markets changing so quickly, we thought it best to simply give you the data and our interpretation in all its raw glory. We checked the US data this morning and the NY data is tracking worse than bad. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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How will COVID-19 impact society in the long run?
Andreas Lundberg
April 2, 2020
As the Coronavirus crisis unfolds, social commentators are making predictions for how the world will change once the pandemic ends. I’m sure you’re also making your own predictions – and we’d really like to hear them. What broad, long-lasting trends do you think we’re about to see? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Your questions: Fund Positioning
Dean Curnow
April 1, 2020
In a month characterised by pandemics and corrections, it has been fair to say the Montgomery team has been busy on all fronts. Our ongoing commitment to keeping our investors as informed saw us host webinars on both the domestic and global front. At each presentations, our investors were welcomed to ask questions directly of the Montgomery team. I have shared a number of the common questions here. continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.
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Your questions: Markets and Macroeconomics
Roger Montgomery
March 31, 2020
We recently ran a webinar explaining how we had positioned our domestic funds as markets were peaking in February and ahead of the Coronavirus pandemic. Attendees were shown our testing data analysis, as well as our suggested framework for navigating the market meltdown. At the conclusion of the webinar, we invited attendees to submit their questions only some of which we were able to answer in the time allotted to us. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Analysing US COVID-19 developments – NY tracking 6x worse than Italy
Gary Rollo
March 30, 2020
Investors are looking at the US COVID-19 data as a guide for when markets may settle down. Our view is that it’s going to be tough for markets to find a bottom until it becomes clear that the US understands the scale of its COVID-19 problem and is taking appropriate steps to mitigate. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Latest Update
Gary Rollo
March 27, 2020
Italy’s major national shutdown and lockdown isolation measures taken on 9 March and March 11, some 14-16 days ago, may now be showing up as lower case numbers. The timeline appears to fit the proposed initial two week quarantine period suggested for potential COVID-19 cases. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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Rain Man and the Australian All Ordinaries Index (Part 2)
David Buckland
March 24, 2020
There have been seven bear markets since the early 1970s. That’s an average of one every seven years. Five of the bear markets, being 1974-75, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the GFC from late 2007 until early 2009, all took approximately eighteen months to play out and all lost approximately 50 per cent from peak to trough. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 2 The story for Italy, the UK and US
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
We have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone and understanding how testing might give us some early insight on the preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Governments, if prepared, would want to utilise the ability to test as an early warning system first. We looked for consistent testing data and can update you on in Italy (IT), UK, and the US. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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