Market commentary
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Some positive signs emerging
Tim Kelley
May 4, 2020
We have previously written at length about our assessment of the evolving COVID-19 crisis, and the way investors might think about navigating the challenging market conditions that came with it. While conscious of the fact that there are only so many articles on the topic that readers need to see, today we add further hay to the stack, but this time with a more optimistic slant. Some of the developments that have caught our eye recently are unambiguously positive and may prove to be important in shaping the market environment over the next 12 months. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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Australian dividends forecast to be cut the most in the world
Andreas Lundberg
May 1, 2020
It should come as no secret that Australian companies are paying very high dividends in comparison to international companies. Compared to other major stock exchanges in the world, it is only the London Stock Exchange that has a higher dividend payout ratio – the portion of a company’s earnings that is paid out in dividend rather than retained in the company. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Is it finally safe to buy?
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2020
With the Australian market rebounding strongly, some investors could be experiencing a fear of missing out. But an analysis of economic conditions tells me there’s no rush to dive in. With the market looking expensive, so many uncertainties in the world, and a growing list of dilutive capital raisings, is it a good time to sit on your hands? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Where to invest in a post-lockdown world
Roger Montgomery
April 29, 2020
Now that governments are talking about re-opening the economy, investors can start thinking about the businesses that might provide the best returns as we emerge from economic hibernation. Here, I give a quick appraisal of the investment landscape, and identify the key attributes of businesses that I think will rebound the hardest. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Has a down-leg commenced?
David Buckland
April 27, 2020
With the S&P 500 and the Australian all Ordinaries Index possibly stalling in the terms of the most recent rally at 2,870 points and 5,550 points respectively, I have received a few telephone calls from investors asking, “has the Wave C down-leg commenced?” continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Jobs vs lives: the tough decision governments have to make
Roger Montgomery
April 21, 2020
When you compare our COVID-19 experience to that of other countries, it’s clear that our governments – at all levels – have done a stellar job in keeping almost all of us safe. They’ve done this by shutting down much of our economy. But now they’re faced with the inevitable dilemma: how soon to open it again? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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How to invest into an unknowable future
Roger Montgomery
April 17, 2020
Danish physicist, Niels Bohr, is reputed to have quipped that “It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” And never has this been more so than right now. Amid a confluence of events for which there are no precedents, it is impossible to make perfectly informed investment decisions. However, even with this extreme level of uncertainty, I believe there are principles investors can use to help guide their decisions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Beware when the market and the economy are out of sync
Roger Montgomery
April 16, 2020
Following its one-month 36 per cent decline from peak (20 February 2020) to its low (23 March 2020), the ASX200 has bounced 20 per cent. That’s a return most investors would be happy with over a year. The question is whether such optimism is warranted. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Looking through market volatility for opportunities
Gary Rollo
April 8, 2020
As we look ahead the key questions for markets is how long will global economies remain closed for business, and what will demand look like on the other side of the valley? continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary, Montgomery News and Updates.
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What is the recent market strength telling us?
Tim Kelley
April 7, 2020
If the recent market rally has taken you by surprise, you’re not alone. Since hitting a low around 23 March, the S&P/ASX200 Index has rebounded almost 20 per cent, despite a steady flow of grim health and economic news coming out of Europe and the US. So does that mean the market has bottomed? continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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