Market commentary
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Is this the end of Zero?
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2022
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the National Association of Business Economists last night, providing a clear picture of the Fed’s view of the economy, the impact of Russia’s invasion and the likely path forward for monetary policy. As it has important implications for investors it is essential listening or reading. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The industries outperforming when inflation is high
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger identifies why it is important for investors to contemplate the implications for investment markets of the conflict with Russia and Ukraine resolving quickly or being long and protracted. According to research conducted by UBS, in past periods when inflation is high and growth slows to a moderate level the U.S. industries that historically outperformed the market were Food Staples & Retailing, Hygiene, Healthcare and Personal Products, Pharma and Biotech, Food and Beverages, Banks, Real Estate & Energy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Why a big lift in interest rates is not on the cards
Roger Montgomery
March 21, 2022
Right now, many in the financial markets are expecting a two percentage point bump in interest rates by June next year. But I have my doubts. The RBA is unlikely to raise rates meaningfully until annual wage growth rises above three per cent – which is a long way off. So, to me, it looks like the market is jumping at shadows. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Buyer beware: the Russian invasion has changed the investing landscape
Roger Montgomery
March 18, 2022
In only a few short weeks, the investing landscape has changed, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cosying-up by President Vladimir Putin to China’s Xi Jinping. How this plays out, only time will tell. But it seems likely that the deepening divide between these dictators and the west will need to be factored into our investment decisions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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No sustainability without security
David Buckland
March 8, 2022
In his article in Friday’s Australian Financial Review, Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, wrote the US and Europe “needs to put energy security on a par with environmental sustainability”. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Market commentary.
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Is it simply greed that motivated Putin to invade the Ukraine?
Roger Montgomery
March 7, 2022
In 2015, Professor Karen Dawisha – a renowned Russian scholar – published a book titled Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? It details Russia’s politically driven system of economic predation, which has resulted in the greatest inequality[1] of any developed nation. Her book documents numerous cases of government theft, and provides the context for Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why Ukraine is not the only concern for investors
Roger Montgomery
March 4, 2022
The war in Ukraine is, appropriately, a major concern for all of us. And while we hope democratic western nations do everything possible to stop Putin in his quest to subjugate and vanquish Ukrainians, it is not the only issue for investors. Here are some of the other major issues to keep an eye on. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The history of organised trading in marketable securities
David Buckland
March 3, 2022
Organised trading in marketable securities began in Amsterdam in 1602, London in 1698 and New York in 1792. Fast forward to both 1900 and 2021, and stock-markets were a very different place. In 1900, the top four markets represented 56 per cent of world market capitalisation. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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War. What is it good for? Well, surprisingly, equities
Roger Montgomery
February 24, 2022
Edwin Starr’s classic 1969 anti-war song, War, asks: “War: What is it good for?” and responds emphatically “absolutely nothing.” It’s hard to argue with the sentiment. But it turns out Starr was not completely correct. You see, despite the terrifying carnage and destruction, war can often be a fruitful time to invest. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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The impact of inflation and interest rates on companies’ price to earnings ratios
Roger Montgomery
February 22, 2022
Currently-surging US inflation has triggered a dramatic move in interest rate expectations, which in turn have inspired equity investors to reassess the risk they are willing to adopt. In the space of seven months, US short-term interest rate expectations have moved materially. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
