Market commentary
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Are Central Banks tightening too late as inflation hits 30 to 40 year highs?
David Buckland
May 2, 2022
In this week’s video insight David discusses how rising interest rates will impact indebted households and the knock-on-effect. The psychological boost and wealth effect enjoyed from strongly rising house prices will likely be missing in the foreseeable future and this means indebted households are more vulnerable to Central Bank tightening late in this inflationary cycle. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Macquarie’s economic update part 3 – Will mining save the Aussie economy?
Roger Montgomery
April 27, 2022
As highlighted in the preceding two articles, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, see darker times ahead for the US economy and equity market. But their outlook for our economy and equities is more nuanced. Australia will benefit from the race to decarbonise, with some commodities doing particularly well. For investors, it means careful stock selection will be the order of the day. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Macquarie’s economic update Part 2 – In the US, winter is coming
Roger Montgomery
April 26, 2022
In their latest global economic update, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, paint a far from rosy picture of the year ahead. For the US they see rising interest rates, a slowing economy and a strong chance of a recession. And their views on returns in equity markets are bleak. If they are correct, then it’s time for investors to be extra cautious, and to focus their portfolios on quality and growth. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Macquarie’s economic update part 1 – Inflation, war and COVID
Roger Montgomery
April 22, 2022
Recently, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, provided their much anticipated global economic update. It includes insights into how COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are impacting supply chains, inflation and interest rate expectations. It also includes their somewhat bleak views on the outlook for property and equity markets. I’ve summarised the key take-outs in four blog posts. Here is the first one. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What rising cash rates mean
David Buckland
April 14, 2022
Since October 2021, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised their cash rate on four separate occasions. On three occasions (6 October 2021, 24 November 2021, and 23 February 2022) the increase was by 0.25 per cent (to 1.0 per cent) and yesterday (13 April 2022) the increase was by 0.50 per cent (to 1.50 per cent). The last time the RBNZ moved their official cash rate by 0.5 per cent, was on 14 November 2001 – and the direction was downward to 4.75 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Take heed of these four key risks, warns JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon
Stuart Jackson
April 10, 2022
Jamie Dimon is chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase – the world’s largest bank by market capitalisation – and has been included four times in Time magazine’s list of the world’s 100 most influential people. So his annual letter, released as part of the bank’s latest annual report, is worth reading. In it, Dimon points to four key risks facing all investors. Here is an overview of his letter. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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Earnings growth is becoming a priority
Roger Montgomery
April 1, 2022
Over the years I have often sat alongside guests on a TV or radio panel and heard them conclude the easy gains have been made. For the first time in many years I agree. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.
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Is this the end of Zero?
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2022
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the National Association of Business Economists last night, providing a clear picture of the Fed’s view of the economy, the impact of Russia’s invasion and the likely path forward for monetary policy. As it has important implications for investors it is essential listening or reading. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The industries outperforming when inflation is high
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger identifies why it is important for investors to contemplate the implications for investment markets of the conflict with Russia and Ukraine resolving quickly or being long and protracted. According to research conducted by UBS, in past periods when inflation is high and growth slows to a moderate level the U.S. industries that historically outperformed the market were Food Staples & Retailing, Hygiene, Healthcare and Personal Products, Pharma and Biotech, Food and Beverages, Banks, Real Estate & Energy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Why a big lift in interest rates is not on the cards
Roger Montgomery
March 21, 2022
Right now, many in the financial markets are expecting a two percentage point bump in interest rates by June next year. But I have my doubts. The RBA is unlikely to raise rates meaningfully until annual wage growth rises above three per cent – which is a long way off. So, to me, it looks like the market is jumping at shadows. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
