Market commentary
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Why rising rates impact corporate earnings too
Joseph Kim
June 9, 2022
If you had to pick one topic which has overwhelmed investors in 2022, it is inflation. Inflation is where all roads in 2022 have led – it has forced a shift in central bank policy, impacted both wealth and standards of living and dominated headlines in both financial markets and mainstream media alike. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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A forecast slowdown is not a recession
Roger Montgomery
June 6, 2022
Most economists are forecasting a domestic and global economic slowdown. According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, economic obstacles, including the Russia–Ukraine war, China’s COVID lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages, and the consequent inflationary pressures on both finished goods and raw materials are well known, and in some cases becoming entrenched. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Are we there yet?
Roger Montgomery
May 31, 2022
Investors would like to know if we are near the bottom. While, trying to time markets is a mugs game, the following three charts offers one interpretation of the prospects for the broader market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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With markets falling, is it safe to invest again?
Roger Montgomery
May 25, 2022
In the famed 1970s thriller, Marathon Man, Nazi dentist Dr Christian Szell – who is looking for a stash of stolen diamonds – repeatedly asks the character played by Dustin Hoffman “Is it safe?” Right now, many people are likely asking the same question about investing in the share market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Where to invest if the economy heads for a hard landing
Roger Montgomery
May 20, 2022
Right now, there’s no shortage of pessimistic forecasts for the U.S. economy. You need only look at recent reports from the likes of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. These bleak forecasts have many U.S. investors talking up the probability of a bear market in equities. In this environment, careful stock selection will be more important than ever. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why every setback is accompanied by a different narrative
Roger Montgomery
May 16, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses why setbacks are a necessary part of investing, especially for those keen to realise better returns. Remembering that the lower the price you pay, the higher your returns, it makes sense that we should welcome market pullbacks. Eventually, there will be an end to rising interest rates and eventually, inflation will peak. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Have bad calls eroded the credibility of Central Banks?
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2022
Just over a year ago, the US Federal Reserve said inflation was ‘transitory’. Six months later, it said it would not need to raise interest rates above zero. Yet, just last week at its May meeting, the Fed announced it would need to raise rates 0.50 per cent in the face of soaring and persistent inflation. Is it any wonder many people feel the Fed is out of touch, and have lost faith in its policies and prognostications? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura High Yield SME Fund: Letter to Investors 06 May 2022
Brett Craig
May 9, 2022
This week we saw the RBA introduce the first rate rise since November 2010, bringing the cash rate to 0.35% in response to the current inflation-driven economic environment. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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Taking advantage of the bears
Roger Montgomery
May 5, 2022
With market indices sliding, the bears are emerging from their hibernation to shout ‘I told you so’. Markets, especially equity markets, inevitably journey through periods of negative returns, so eventually, the bears must be correct. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Higher interest rates equal lower PEs
David Buckland
May 3, 2022
When I joined the financial market in the 1980’s as a young graduate, I was given a simple rule from an old-timer which went something like this: “Son, the market PE plus long-term inflationary expectations should equal 20.” At the time, Australia’s inflation rate was coming down from 12 per cent, and the market PE approximated 8x. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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