Market commentary
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Get set for weaker employment data
Stuart Jackson
July 19, 2022
Australia is currently enjoying the most buoyant labour market conditions since the 1970s. But how long can the low unemployment rate persist? As the saying goes, if something can’t go on forever, sooner or later it must stop. And with consumer and business sentiment both waning, surely it is just a matter of time. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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English-speaking Central Banks are slowly getting it
David Buckland
July 15, 2022
Wednesday was a big day for the English-speaking Central Banks. The Bank of New Zealand, the first of the Central Banks to realise inflation was becoming a significant issue, commenced tightening their monetary policy from 0.25 per cent on 6 October 2021. Wednesday was their sixth increase to 2.5 per cent, and it will be interesting to see the degree this crunches the New Zealand economy over the next few months.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Is it time to hit the ‘buy’ button?
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2022
If there’s one investing axiom to hang your hat on, it’s this: the lower the price you pay, the better your returns over the longer term. With the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of many high quality businesses compressing, I therefore think it’s time for long-term investors to buy while so many others are fearful. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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How much would higher immigration rates help equity markets?
Roger Montgomery
July 5, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses how the fate of equity markets now hinges materially, but not solely, on the employment picture and the how central banks navigate the very serious choice they have to make between inflation or recession. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Farewell fiscal 2022, hello fiscal 2023
David Buckland
July 4, 2022
Many commentators point to the six months to June 2022 as being one of the worst June half-year periods for the performance of both the share market and the bond market for several decades. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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When bad news is good news
David Buckland
June 28, 2022
After the very sharp sell-off in the share market, the recent rally is indicative of a mood where bad news is good news. Specifically, the recognised slowdown in the English-speaking economies likely means the various Central Banks will not be required to increase official cash rates by the amount that most forecasters had assumed. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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What if interest rates don’t go as high as the market is predicting?
Andreas Lundberg
June 27, 2022
With many market watchers expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep raising interest rates, high growth companies with no current earnings, but with potential for strong growth, have been heavily sold off. But, due to the economic impact, I’m not so sure the RBA will raise interest rates by as much as predicted. And if I’m correct, investors will be able to pick up (some of) these high growth companies at more favourable prices. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why it pays to invest when markets are heading south
Roger Montgomery
June 24, 2022
Warren Buffett once observed that “In stocks, it’s the only place where, when things go on sale, people get unhappy.” Which is ironic, because bear markets give long-term investors a wonderful opportunity to make market-beating returns. And the lower the market falls, the more excited we should be about buying shares in quality businesses at knock-down prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Hang onto your hat, as the free money epoch comes to an end
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2022
The last couple of years have been one helluva ride, haven’t they? Thanks to a heady cocktail of record low interest rates and massive government stimulus, we’ve seen ballooning valuations for companies with no profit – and little or no prospect of making any. But the free money epoch is now ending, and the dire consequences have only just begun for these companies and their shareholders. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What to expect from the stock market?
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses what could be next for the stock market. We already know that P/E ratios have compressed considerably, and taken into account all of the increase in bond rates. What they haven’t done, of course, is priced a very significant recession, nor have they priced the possibility of a financial crisis of any description. But what happens if rates stop rising, and if economies don’t go into a recession, and we don’t get a financial crisis? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
