Market commentary
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Aura High Yield SME Fund: Letter to Investors 02 September 2022
Brett Craig
September 5, 2022
The retail trade and APRA July 2022 data released this week provided more data to support RBA hikes in the coming months. This week the ABS released data for retail trade turnover and volume. This dataset includes references to retail businesses including stores and online sales. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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Why the Fed’s war on inflation could lead to bargains for investors
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2022
On Friday at Jackson Hole in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke for eight minutes and 38 seconds reinforcing the idea that restrictive monetary policy is likely to be maintained for some time – all in the name of fighting inflation. World markets quickly went into reverse. The good news is that savvy investors may now get another chance to buy quality businesses at attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Beware of a head fake, warns Goldman Sachs
Roger Montgomery
August 26, 2022
When it comes to investing, a head fake is an increase or decrease in market performance that is quickly followed by a shift in the opposite direction. And with the market bouncing off recent lows, that’s exactly what the analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning could soon occur as investors realise they became too excited too soon. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Is the current rally premature?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2022
I believe there are good arguments the current rally is premature and might reverse. Keep in mind I am still long and heavily invested in equities. I just think the current rally has got ahead of itself. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What to expect from markets in the week ahead
Roger Montgomery
August 8, 2022
Domestic results season is about to ramp up and investors like us will be focusing, in particular, on the outlook statements. You might recall there was a lot of optimism at the time of the half yearly results in February. Back then, a combination of reopening, rebuilding and expectations of a continuation of accommodative monetary policy was met abruptly, in late February, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Growth stocks could rebound if inflation turns out to be “transitory” after all
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2022
Since bravely declaring that inflation would be “transitory” the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been ridiculed for being so wrong. After all, we’ve since seen inflation exceed initial estimates and be more persistent than anticipated. But now it seems inflation could be transitory after all. And that augers well for quality growth stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Could a credit crunch be more important than a recession?
Roger Montgomery
July 20, 2022
I have just penned my next column for The Australian Wealth section this weekend. In the article I explain how different definitions of recession are common and yet largely irrelevant for today’s equity investor. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Get set for weaker employment data
Stuart Jackson
July 19, 2022
Australia is currently enjoying the most buoyant labour market conditions since the 1970s. But how long can the low unemployment rate persist? As the saying goes, if something can’t go on forever, sooner or later it must stop. And with consumer and business sentiment both waning, surely it is just a matter of time. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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English-speaking Central Banks are slowly getting it
David Buckland
July 15, 2022
Wednesday was a big day for the English-speaking Central Banks. The Bank of New Zealand, the first of the Central Banks to realise inflation was becoming a significant issue, commenced tightening their monetary policy from 0.25 per cent on 6 October 2021. Wednesday was their sixth increase to 2.5 per cent, and it will be interesting to see the degree this crunches the New Zealand economy over the next few months.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Is it time to hit the ‘buy’ button?
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2022
If there’s one investing axiom to hang your hat on, it’s this: the lower the price you pay, the better your returns over the longer term. With the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of many high quality businesses compressing, I therefore think it’s time for long-term investors to buy while so many others are fearful. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
