Market commentary
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Revving up: Australian auto market hits historic high in August
Roger Montgomery
September 20, 2023
In a remarkable surge, the Australian automotive market witnessed a historic high in August with 109,966 new vehicles sold. This momentous spike has been attributed to an upsurge in pent-up demand and a resurgence in supply. Notably, this August performance broke previous records, following on the heels of similarly ground-breaking sales in May and July this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Economic insights from reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 18, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I review the question of whether a recession is imminent. There has been no shortage of talks of a recession lately, although if we dive deeper into what we have seen in markets over August and September a compelling counterpoint to this narrative is visible. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Navigating the FY23 reporting season: Tech and retail sector highlights
Roger Montgomery
September 13, 2023
In this weeks’ video insight, I wanted to highlight some key takeaways from the reporting season, especially in the tech and retail sector. Retail’s results were mixed, with earnings per share declining in the second half of 2023. Predictions for fiscal year 24 and 25 estimates saw a slight downturn. In the tech sector, performance met expectations, with a noticeable focus on tech companies’ downgrading due to depreciation and amortisation, and capex concerns with a focus on cash flow and the underestimation of rising interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Streaming TV ain’t what it used to be
Roger Montgomery
September 12, 2023
In 1999, I was working at an investment bank. It was a terrible year to be advising investors to invest in high-quality companies making a profit and to take profit on the technology-related initial public offerings (IPO) listed at massive first-day premiums despite being unprofitable businesses. It was the year of the first technology boom, now known as the Dotcom boom and subsequent bubble. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The themed ETF trap
Roger Montgomery
September 11, 2023
At the outset, let me be clear: This is a blog post about a very narrow band of specialised or thematic exchange-traded funds (ETF), not broader ETFs that track major stock market indices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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How soon will another property construction boom emerge?
Roger Montgomery
September 8, 2023
The Australian bureau of statistics’ (ABS) building approvals data paints a sorry picture for the supply of apartments today but also points to a much brighter future. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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Why the Australian Future Fund has turned bearish
Roger Montgomery
September 6, 2023
The Australian Future Fund, valued at $258 billion, is undergoing significant strategic shifts under the guidance of Chief Executive Raphael Arndt and Chair Peter Costello. These changes are driven by expectations of prolonged inflation, overvalued stocks, and the heightened risks stemming from China’s economic slowdown. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit insights: monthly CPI indicator is easing
Brett Craig
September 4, 2023
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is continuing to show signs of easing. The 12 months to July reported a 4.9 per cent increase, which is down from the June figure of 5.4 per cent. This is a significant improvement off the back of the 8.4 per cent peak in December 2022. This is the lowest inflation rate since February 2022. The most notable prices increases were in housing and food and beverages. The decline in the price of fuel offset the rise for the July period. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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U.S. regional banks two-point-Oh!
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2023
We appear to be witnessing a shift in the U.S. banking landscape and recent events suggest we should proceed with caution. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit insights: Are the rising interest rates finally having their desired effect?
Brett Craig
September 1, 2023
The latest monetary policy decision made in August was to hold the cash rate at 4.10 per cent. With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting next week, many are wondering if the RBA has another rate hike up their sleeve. Whilst many believe we are nearing the top of the rate hiking cycle, understanding the current economic conditions will assist in determining the probability of an interest rate hike versus a hold on interest rates. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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