Investing Education

I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s summer series to talk about the growth of private credit, why it has expanded so quickly, and what investors should look for when assessing these opportunities. We also discussed how private credit can complement a diversified portfolio, providing an income stream that is uncorrelated to equity markets. 

You can catch the full episode here: Why private credit is booming. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Sir Isaac Newton is enshrined in history as the saint of rational thought. He decoded the laws of gravity, invented calculus, and parsed the rainbow. Yet, in the spring and summer of 1720, the arguably most intelligent man in the British Empire made a series of financial blunders, recorded for posterity, and so catastrophic they have become a cautionary legend in economic and investment history.

Newton’s entanglement with the South Sea Company serves as a stark reminder: in the face of collective delusion and market mania, even a genius can be led astray. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Wall Street on Thursday experienced a stunning reversal in sentiment. Impressive results from the company spearheading the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, Nvidia (NVDA), and a strong September jobs report initially drove the Nasdaq up more than two per cent.

On Wednesday, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang had described demand for its Blackwell chips as “off the charts”, and dismissed fears of an AI bubble on the company’s earnings call.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, meaning the labour market was in better shape than previously thought. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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For every equity that trades, there is a buyer and seller. Often there are functional reasons for selling, such as paying down a loan, paying tax, distributing an inheritance, or meeting retirement spending needs. Putting those aside, another reason for selling is the harbouring of a negative outlook on the share market in general or the sector or individual stock. But there is also a buyer on the side, who may hold the polar opposite view and outlook.

And if we assume both investors have access to the same information, the difference in outlook can only be attributed to a difference in perception.

Take for example the spending by artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers on their infrastructure buildout, estimated to be US$3 trillion by 2029. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.

The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows. Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to long-term average earnings, and John Hussman’s market-cap-to-GVA, were designed to flag these distortions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In recessions, it is said, ‘cash is king’. We mustn’t be in a recession because the price of gold has trounced cash. 

In the last 10 U.S. trading sessions, six all-time highs have been registered in the gold price. And gold isn’t the only precious metal receiving a bid. Seven all-time highs have been registered in silver, six all-time highs in palladium, and three in platinum. As an aside, there have also been five new all-time highs in the S&P500 and one in Bitcoin. All have been on significant volume.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to unpack two of the most talked-about assets right now – gold and Bitcoin. We explored why gold has surged to record highs, and I explained why investors often turn to it in times of uncertainty. Gold can feel like a safe haven against fears of currency devaluation, central bank policy shifts, or geopolitical risks, but at its core, it’s more of a bet on fear than a long-term investment. I also touched on the practical ways Australians can gain exposure to gold, from bullion and exchange-traded funds to gold mining shares, and the unique costs and risks attached to each. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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