Insightful Insights

Australia’s triple AAA credit rating, strong commodity exports and high interest rates have meant that many have enjoyed the benefits of a high Australian dollar.

Variously described as the Little Aussie Battler, Pacific Peso and the Aussie Ringgit, the Australian currency has now traded for the longest period of time above parity against the US dollar since it was floated in 1983.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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Even though we haven’t owned Blackmores shares, last week we read their regular quarterly update for the first nine months of 2013. We did so with some concern. At the top-line, a reported a 29% jump in revenue looks like a strong result. At the bottom-line, the 7% NPAT decline is troubling for a number of reasons.
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by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.

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Resmed has just announced another record quarterly result. For those unfamiliar with Resmed, the company is a manufacturer of flow generators and masks for sufferers of Obstructed Sleep Apnea (OSA). OSA is a condition that causes the airways to temporarily close while sleeping (apnea means “without breath”).
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by Ben MacNevin Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.

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Colonial First State has just released their quarterly results to March 2013 for their Retail Property Trust. This retail-specific Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT) comprises shopping centres, department stores, supermarkets and specialty stores.
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by Ben MacNevin Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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It has always amused us that China, with 1.34 billion people (19 per cent of the world’s population of 7 billion) and with an economy of US$8.5 trillion (12 per cent of the world’s GDP of US$70 trillion), can produce their GDP growth rate within days of the quarter end.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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And now to a very short break. We’ll be back with more after these short messages…
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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Many readers will have noticed the dramatic fall in the price of Cochlear (COH) shares from above $80 per share at the start of February to below $60 recently. COH is an Australian-based world beater in cochlear implants (note that “cochlear” is both the name of the company (COH) and the part of the inner ear into which cochlear implants are implanted, whether they are supplied by COH or a competitor). At Montgomery, we are big fans of COH, and in the past it has been a significant holding of the Montgomery [Private] Fund. With the recent decline in share price we have again been taking interest in the business.
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by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.

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As you know, we have been barking loudly about a deterioration in China for two years. For investors however, it is often less important that fundamentals are deteriorating, and more important that sentiment isn’t. But sentiment does appear to be deteriorating too.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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A lot has been written about the gold price in recent days. Much of it has been the usual ex-post narrative explaining exactly why the price has moved in the way it has, including reasons such as: lower expectations for quantitative easing, hedge funds being forced to liquidate leverage positions, the loss of “safe haven” status, etc.
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by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.

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The recent discussions we have engaged in here – about governments being unwilling to borrow, and separately, how the balance of payments’ current deficit is ‘structural’ only because of a lack of long-term thinking – have generated enormous feedback from every corner of our great country. Interestingly and encouragingly, the issues are part of vernacular across all demographics and socio-economic groups.

At the heart of the issues however (and keep in mind the ‘heart’ has many chambers) is the question about whether the government is the right entity to make important capital allocation decisions.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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