Financial Services

The Reserve Bank and APRA have just released their credit statistics for April. The numbers show a slowing in loan growth rates that was consistent with the recent major bank results to March 2017. The source of slowing is primarily from weakening growth in loans to the corporate sector, while mortgage book growth remains reasonably stable at around 7% year on year. continue…

by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services.

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Back in January this year, The Montgomery Global Fund’s Portfolio Manager, and CIO for Montaka Global Fund, Andy Macken wrote a blog here warning investors about the quality of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank’s (ASX:BEN) earnings.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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The Federal Government’s proposed bank levy has opened up a battlefront with the major banks, not to mention shareholders and bank staff. On face value, the 6 basis point levy seems relatively benign. But we think it will increase investment risk in an already overvalued sector. continue…

by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services.

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One of the drivers behind the recent bank rally has been a perception we are over the worst of the risks around increasing regulatory capital requirements. But are we? A report card from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision indicates this view might be a little premature. If so, there could be ramifications for banks and property investors alike. continue…

by Stuart Jackson Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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If Trump is crafting a name for himself for anything beyond that for which his reputation already precedes him, it is the complete rejection of dogma.  He is literally turning established orthodoxy on its head and it looks like a letter written just over a week ago by U.S. Congressman Patrick McHenry, who serves on the House Financial Services Committee, to Fed Chair Janet Yellen may even turn Australian banks on their heads, emptying them of all their franking credits and returning much more capital back to shareholders. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services.

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In September 2015, Howard Marks wrote a memo entitled, ‘It’s Not Easy’, a reflection on Charlie Munger’s famous aphorism about investing, “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” The memo reflected upon the requirement for second level thinking in order to be a successful investor. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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Since early November 2016, owners of Australian bank shares have been heartened to see stock prices rise sharply.  But this could be as good as it gets – at least for a while – and it may be time for shareholders to take some profits and seek out opportunities in over-sold small and midcap companies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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The outlook for Australia’s banks in 2017 is now tougher given the rerating of the stocks the last quarter of 2016. The expectations built into share prices have clearly lifted in 2017.  The big change we expect is a slowing of loan book growth. If interest rates have bottomed, affordability of debt will suffer. Market expectations imply a continuation of the growth rates we’ve seen over the past decade or two, but if the cost of debt stops falling this could act as a drag on loan book growth and the broader economy. Funding costs continue to rise, pressuring net interest margins. Slowing loan book growth is also likely to increase competitive pressure as banks look to gain market share as an offset.

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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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As we have noted before, the outlook for loan book growth is one of the main factors that drive the prospects for bank earnings growth. The issue for the banks – and investors in the sector – is that rates are more likely to rise in the medium to longer term, and this will put downward pressure on loan book growth.
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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services.

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Over the last week, ANZ, NAB and Westpac reported their full year 2016 results, while CBA provided a trading update for the September quarter.  So I thought it would be a good time to review the key themes to emerge.

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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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