Energy / Resources
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Drums of the island
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2015
On Lord Howe island, in January this year, I sat reading The Australian. The paper was two days old – a function of relying on the airlines to deliver the papers and the fact that ‘island life’ means islanders aren’t that interested in the content. What didn’t age however was the human tendency to overreact.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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China Dumping Steel Is a Cause for concern
David Buckland
March 25, 2015
Following on from my previous blog where I passed on the concerns of the executives from Arcelor Mittal, it now appears the US, the world’s second-biggest steel consumer, is seeking political support for tariffs on imported steel. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing.
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China dumping steel is a cause for concern – Part 1
David Buckland
March 16, 2015
China is expected to produce at least 825 million tonnes of steel this year and the likes of BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) believe this figure will grow at 2.5 per cent per annum over the next decade to 1,050 million tonnes. Some commentators however are starting to question whether China’s steel production has already reached a turning point, and if this is so my advice to our readers is not to get bullish on iron-ore companies any time soon. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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China Watch #2
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2015
Recently Australian Financial Review Journalist Angus Grigg reported an interesting admission by a director at China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). It’s a big deal for a SAFE official to be making such statements publicly.
Here’s the highlights: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Do Property Prices Ever Fall?
Roger Montgomery
February 11, 2015
It was December 14, 2011. The Australian Resource Boom was in full swing and the Pilbara was ground zero. In Port Hedland the median house price had almost doubled in four years from $600,000 in 2007 to more than $1 million, according to Real Estate Institute of WA figures. In Wedge Street, you needed plenty of ‘wedge’ – $995,000 to be exact – to buy a brand new ‘off the plan’ two-bedroom unit in a multilevel apartment complex.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Property.
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WARNING: Will Tony Abbott (and You) Survive This?
Roger Montgomery
February 10, 2015
In the media last week, we emphasized the prospects for a hard landing in Australia. Being tied, by commodities, to the slowing growth of China puts Australia in the path of a serious economy malaise. Since 2010 we have been warning investors about the declining iron ore prices, Australian dollar and employment prospects. Back then China’s growth was being advertised at 12 per cent – fuelled in no small part by the property glut that was under construction. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets.
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Is there early pressure from the collapsing oil and gas price?
David Buckland
February 6, 2015
In late 2013, I wrote a number of blogs on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) concluding that unless the industry cost structure in Australia changes and productivity improves, there are unlikely to be any new offshore “green field” LNG projects, except for Floating LNG facilities. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The oil price slump and the declining rate of inflation
David Buckland
January 27, 2015
The slump in the oil price since mid-2014 has seen global inflation rates continue to trend down. European consumer prices fell an annual 0.2 per cent in December 2014 and European Central Bank president continues to “do whatever it takes” by unveiling a 1,100 billion Euro (US$1,250 billion) bond buying program over 2015-2016. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Greased Lightning
Ben MacNevin
January 23, 2015
The sudden fall in the oil price in the December 2014 half-year was unexpected by the market, but the speed of contraction in oil-related investment should come as no surprise. As the German economist Rudi Dornbusch observed, “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will and then happen faster than you thought they could”. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Is it time to look at mining services?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2015
Among the biggest casualties of falling resources capex have been the various engineering, contracting and construction firms that provide services to the resources sector. Monadelphous (ASX: MND) is a case in point: With strong demand to fuel its growth, the Mondaelphous share price rose 50-fold in the decade leading up to 2012. Over the last few years however, a decline in earnings has seen the share price fall by around 70 per cent – a painful drop in any language. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Property.
