Economics
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Deflationary pressures in China – be careful what you wish for
David Buckland
February 7, 2024
Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Collapse in household financial conditions laid bare
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2023
Here’s a bit of a depressing picture for the retail sector for the September 2023 quarter. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) paints a bleak outlook for retailers this Christmas and into early 2024. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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The interest rate conundrum: Conflicting forecasts from banking giants
Roger Montgomery
December 11, 2023
In this week’s video insight I wanted to discuss the contrasting predictions from Australia’s major banks regarding interest rates, painting a nuanced picture of the economic landscape. Shayne Elliott from ANZ anticipates sustained rate hikes amid escalating growth pressures. In contrast, NAB’s Ross McEwan suggests rates might have peaked, while CBA hints at a possible rate cut. These varied perspectives hold significant implications for households with mortgages and investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – A deflationary surprise?
Roger Montgomery
December 1, 2023
In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I aimed to provide insights into prevailing economic trends, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy. It’s evident that the market sentiment has transitioned from recession concerns to the possibility of enduring inflation, a shift I believe might stem from potentially overreaching actions by the Federal Reserve to curb economic momentum. Additionally, I discussed the likelihood of the Australian economy already being in a recession and the potential impact on both the broader equity market and small-cap stocks in general. You can watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – A deflationary surprise?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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The RBA acknowledges boomers win and mortgagees lose
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Central banks across the globe find themselves in a challenging predicament, and our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a particularly delicate situation. In Australia, an intricate interplay of demographics and home ownership dynamics creates a paradox where those who bear the brunt of rising interest rates are not the ones fuelling the inflationary fire through their spending habits. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The RBA is in a bind along with mortgagees and renters
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2023
Just 48 hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted rates for the 13th time by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said at a conference in Washington that “we are not confident” the Fed has tightened enough to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What factors influence the future of oil?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2023
As world oil’s upstream and downstream industries stand at a crossroads, investors globally face the challenge of deciphering innumerable geopolitical and economic signals. These signals will also directly impact inflation rates with implications for central bank interest rate policy. For investors, the outlook for oil holds more than the usual amount of sway. From potential upheavals in the Middle East to colossal mergers in the U.S., here’s a shallow dive into the factors influencing the future of oil. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Former NY Federal Reserve President Dudley offers insight on U.S. economic outlook
Roger Montgomery
November 15, 2023
At a recent investment conference here in Sydney, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), and now Bloomberg columnist William C. Dudley, provided a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in the U.S., highlighting several key points that shed light on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) perspective and future policy directions. Dudley’s analysis offers a crucial perspective for understanding the Fed’s current mindset and the potential trajectory of its future policies. All of which, of course, have consequences for investors’ portfolios. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Would you like some sugar with your mortgage?
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest rate rise has serious consequences for consumers and investors. There can be no argument that the RBA’s battle against inflation dominates investment commentary. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Australia leads the world in the annual pace of disposable income decline
Roger Montgomery
November 10, 2023
In its fight against persistent inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just introduced its 13th rate hike in this cycle at the same the financial strain on Australian households intensifies. According to a disturbing report published in The Australian Financial Review (AFR) this week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has discovered Australia leads the world in the annual pace of disposable income declines globally. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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