Economics
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China watch
Roger Montgomery
May 1, 2014
We believe China’s steel production is growing at the rate of 2-3 per cent per annum. Longer term, this – combined with the inevitably slowing economy and the increasing Australian supplies – is an obvious negative influence on the price of iron ore. And it’s something we’ve been warning investors about here on the blog for several years. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble watch #8
Roger Montgomery
April 29, 2014
Following on from the very bearish view of future returns from technology stocks held and published by Seth Klarman at the beginning of the year – he noted Amazon.com was trading at 515 times earnings, Netflix at 181 times, Tesla Motors at 279 times, and LinkedIn at 145 times – we thought you might be interested in similarly bearish views of the US hedge fund team at Greenlight Capital lead by David Einhorn (pictured). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Accumulators vs dissavers
Roger Montgomery
April 1, 2014
Chatting to Ross Greenwood on Radio 2GB on Tuesday April 1, I discuss the imminent end of the so-called accumulation age, owing to Australia’s ageing population, and what this means for investors approaching retirement age. Listen here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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- POSTED IN Economics
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Will Ukraine’s Cold War heat up?
David Buckland
March 31, 2014
Condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea by Ukraine’s northern and western neighbours has been surprisingly quiet, and once again the US has been left to do the heavy lifting in terms of playing “global sheriff”. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets
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Exploring a Bank’s Earnings
Ben MacNevin
March 13, 2014
The income of Australia’s major banks is largely dependent on the economy’s appetite for credit. When credit growth is modest, as it has been of late, the banks must reduce costs in order to maintain earnings growth. But this stage of the credit cycle also presents an earnings tailwind in the form of lower impairment charges, which the banks have been enjoying. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Economics, Financial Services.
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Looking at: the US Federal Funds Target Rate
David Buckland
February 12, 2014
The US Federal Reserve target rate is one of the most influential interest rates in the US economy, and is applicable to the most credit-worthy institutions when they borrow and lend overnight funds to each other. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Do we need economists and economic commentary?
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2014
Let’s suppose you employed someone to flip coins for you because you believed they were a “lucky” flipper. Would you keep employing them, if after 34 years you found that they flipped winners only half the time? Anyone with a penchant for maths or an interest in Martingale may of course be quite satisfied, but the rest of the population would feel the lucky flipper was of little use at all. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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MEDIA
Switzer: Emerging Markets and Currency Decline
David Buckland
January 29, 2014
In this interview with Peter Switzer, broadcast on Sky Business, David Buckland takes a look at the issues facing investors when it comes to emerging markets and the decline of their currencies.
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, TV Appearances.
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The bubble we have to have…
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2013
Over the course of the last month or so we have been witnessing a coalescing of words, sentiment shifts and policy pronouncements that suggest a bubble is about to be engineered by central banks and governments. The idea that we are in a bubble is thus potentially extremely premature. I am personally becoming convinced that, notwithstanding a few bumps along the way, we may see the inflating of a massive stock market rally that may run hard until 2016. The US credit cycle appears to be only mid way through its typical 5-8 years and the likely Fed heir Janet Yellen is making all sorts of pronouncements suggesting the adjective ‘doveish’ used to describe her is an understatement. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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An insider’s perspective of QE
Ben MacNevin
November 14, 2013
Andrew Huszar managed the first round of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing program, purchasing $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities from 2009 to 2010. The former Morgan Stanley managing director has penned an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal that questions the efficacy of the program. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Economics.
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- POSTED IN Economics
