Economics

As Fiscal 2015 draws to a close and Greece defaults on its debt repayments, let’s take a look at the year that was. The Australian market, excluding reinvestment of dividends, has continued to trade sideways, up 1.3 per cent from 5,382 to 5,451. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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In its June decision to leave cash rates unchanged at an historical low of 2 per cent, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious post-announcement comments appear at odds with a government intent on record investment in infrastructure. continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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We know economists have an unenviable task and can make sheep look like independent thinkers, but their ‘miss’ at the weekend in Canada stands out more for the warning it represents for Australia. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.

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There’s a tendency in the media and amongst Australians to get bored with a story.  The world works in mysterious ways and governments respond when the media stirs up popular support for a cause.  It’s our duty then to ensure the important stories remain front of mind.  This story was first published in November however it is just as relevant now… C’mon Joe Australia needs you!

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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When asked for an opinion about where equity markets might be headed, it is common practice for expert commentators to start with some insightful comments on the economy. This is a natural place to start, as the economy is big and important, and some insightful comments can quickly establish that the commentator is as similarly big and important. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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If a picture tells a thousand words then the picture being painted by these graphs is a gloomy one for those fully invested or those levered into recent asset purchases. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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In the Video Insight on January 12 2015 I mentioned poor consumer confidence and low wages growth domestically, in addition to very low growth in China and deflation in Europe that would see monetary policy “stay easier for longer”. I forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut the cash rate “two more times in the first six months of 2015 and this would likely put a floor under the Aussie market.” continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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The New York Stock Exchange has recently released data on margin lending through to March 2015. What it shows is margin lending at a new all-time high – above the levels seen at the height of the tech boom and prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As you might expect, the data shows that margin lending tends to be popular when markets are hot. The build up of debt when equities are expensive no doubt exacerbates the pain of a subsequent market downturn. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market this week by not lowering official interest rates. While the RBA statement did note that the Board would have a think about lowering rates in the period ahead, the market was pretty sure a cut was in the bag. As a result, a Tuesday morning rally in the equity market made a sudden about face when the news was released. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Property.

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The answer to that question will be known in a few short months. We already have some pretty good indications that validate our optimism.  But some equally solid arguments can be mounted that validate our caution.

Roger Montgomery is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Montgomery Investment Management. To invest with Montgomery, find out more.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Whitepapers.

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