Companies
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OpenAI is a high-stakes bet on ever-bullish markets
Roger Montgomery
November 14, 2025
This week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) lifted the lid on the internal financial projections of OpenAI and Anthropic – the companies at the centre of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
By way of background, Dario Amodei, once a senior leader at OpenAI, parted ways with Sam Altman in 2021 amid strategic and perhaps personal differences and launched Anthropic that same year, seeded it with a $124 million Series A. The debut of ChatGPT in late 2022 blindsided the Amodei and handed OpenAI 100 million users overnight, along with an 18-month revenue lead. Anthropic pivoted sharply to enterprise-grade deployments of its Claude models, a bet that has now propelled its private-market valuation to $183 billion – still trailing OpenAI’s $500 billion mark, but closing the gap through disciplined business to business (B2B) focus. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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NVIDIA’s artificial intelligence web
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2025
Nvidia is increasingly finding itself at the centre of a growing list of round-robin style transactions between artificial intelligence (AI) players that are collectively raising the eyebrows of a variety of reputable investors and industry stalwarts, from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to famed short seller Michael Burry. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Breville Group trading update – insights from the Annual General Meeting
Roger Montgomery
November 7, 2025
Breville Group (ASX: BRG) delivered a concise trading update at its Annual General Meeting yesterday, focusing on the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) to date. While the commentary was positive on several fronts, ongoing uncertainties remain in the U.S. market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Hidden in the sands: Iluka’s rare earth revival
Sean Sequeira
October 22, 2025
At face value, Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is best known as a mineral sands producer. However, the market continues to undervalue the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. With a current market capitalisation of over A$3 billion, Iluka trades below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone – ~A$1 billion in mineral sands inventory, ~A$1.3 billion in rare earths concentrate feedstock (potentially greater than A$2 billion Net Present Value (NPV)) and a A$450 million equity stake in Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) – therefore ascribing very little value to the core mineral sands business. continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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The bull case for small caps
Roger Montgomery
September 26, 2025
If you were listening carefully during reporting season, you might have noticed a growing buzz around small-cap stocks, both here in Australia and in the United States.
More investors are now seeing small caps as a hidden gem. Small caps seem undervalued, overlooked, and are showing signs of a strong recovery.
If you don’t already have an allocation to small caps in your portfolio, now could be the right time to take a closer look. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed – what went wrong at Myer
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2025
I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear + Greed yesterday to discuss Myer’s disappointing announcement of a 30 per cent decline in profit, which was followed by a 25 per cent drop in its share price.
So, what went wrong?
As a traditional bricks-and-mortar department store, Myer has been grappling with significant challenges. Its move into the highly competitive online retail space has brought debt and complex integration issues, while also placing it in direct competition with pure-play online retailers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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Are the Magnificent Seven still magnificent?
Roger Montgomery
September 23, 2025
In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U.S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory. Despite what appears to be artificial intelligence (AI) hype, or perhaps because of it, the seven giants have collectively outpaced the broader S&P 500’s 12.47 per cent year-to-date (YTD) rise, delivering a gain of 15.9 per cent through Monday’s close. At the same time, however, their market-capitalisation share has dropped slightly from a peak of 32.2 per cent in mid-August to 31.3 per cent of the S&P 500’s total value. That indicates some stocks outside of the Mag 7 have been outperforming them. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.
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CEOs behaving badly
David Buckland
September 17, 2025
It is amazing when a Board of Directors goes “all in” with their Chief Executive Officer (CEO). And a short time later, despite reviews from “independent external advisers” that no allegations were substantiated, the directors do a collective about-face and terminate the employment of the CEO. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies.
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Looking at the artificial intelligence boom through Nvidia’s results
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2025
When it comes to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, few events command as much attention as Nvidia’s quarterly earnings calls. With so much riding on the boom enduring, including Nvidia’s $US4.15 trillion market cap, analysts and traders understandably dissect every nuance – from the precise wording of forward guidance to the subtle inflections in CEO Jensen Huang’s voice. They’re looking for clues about whether excitement or caution lies ahead or is presently justified. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like.
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Insights from reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2025
As August 2025 has now wrapped up, Australia’s reporting season has again delivered a snapshot of the economy’s trajectory. For years, we’ve heard the refrain of a “resilient” domestic market weathering global headwinds, interest rate hikes, and inflationary pressures. But this time around, the narrative has evolved. Companies across the ASX are signalling that resilience is giving way to tentative recovery, particularly in consumer spending and the housing sectors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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