From time to time we are asked about option strategies. There are many different types of option strategy, and the merits of any given one depends very much on the particular strategy and the circumstances, but there are a few general principles that are worth keeping in mind. These include:-

– Buying or writing options is a zero sum game. This means that when one person sells an option to another, one of them will win and the other will lose. This is in contrast to ordinary shares where it’s reasonable for all long-term investors to expect a positive return
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by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Since 2001, the gold price has risen from below $270/oz to almost $1800/oz – a compound growth rate of around 17% p.a. which has made it one of the most rewarding assets to hold over that period. The majority of commentators now seem to be born-again gold bulls, with ever increasing long-term price targets being put forward, justified by gold’s status as an alternative currency in a time of economic uncertainty and unlimited quantitative easing.

While we can’t see a reason for gold’s run of strength to end in the short term, we are mindful of the long-term downside risks that attach to such a strong rise in price for an asset that does not produce income. Following a spectacular run between 1970 and 1980, it is worth noting that gold lost over 80% of its value in real terms during the following 20 years.

by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.

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Do Ten Network (TEN), Seven West Media (SWM), Aurora Oil (AUT), Origin Energy (ORG), Santos (STO), Cedar Woods (CWP), Slater and Gordon (SGH), IMF (IMF), Roce Oil (ROC), The Reject Shop (TRS), Challenger (CGF), Bluescope (BSL) or Adelaide Brighton (ABC) achieve the coveted A1 grade? Watch this edition of Sky Business’ Your Money Your Call 10 October 2012 program now to find out, and also hear Tim’s thoughts on the big Aussie banks. Watch here.

by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, TV Appearances.

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At Montgomery Investment Management we don’t claim any special ability to predict where equity markets will go next, but we do know that buying equities when they are relatively inexpensive is a reliable path to better than average long-term returns. One simple way of gauging relative value is to compare the dividend yield for the market as a whole with its historical average (although we don’t advocate valuing individual companies in this way). It’s worth noting that the current dividend yield on the ASX All Ordinaries is around 4.65%, vs an average of 3.84% for the last 20 years (Source: IRESS).

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Reporting season is a busy time for us at Montgomery Investment Management. Studying results announcements is one of the ways we try keep on top of what is happening in the market and identify economic trends and investment opportunities.

We do this in a fairly systematic way.  Every day we review, evaluate and catalogue every last results announcement made that day.  As I write, we have reviewed several hundred sets of financial statements and the accompanying commentary, representing around $700B of aggregate market capitalisation, with many more still to come.

This analysis draws our attention to individual companies that are performing well, and complements the automated stock screening tools we use, including Skaffold.  It also gives us a sense of broader economic trends and the relative health of different parts of the economy.

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by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.

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