Investing Education
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The AI spending spree investors should fear
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2026
On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.
Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fearby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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10 lessons from the FY26 reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2026
The Financial Year 2026 (FY26) reporting season has concluded with corporate Australia in considerably better shape than many had feared.
Before getting too excited, however, it’s worth noting corporate Australia may not be in as good shape as the headline numbers suggest.
Aggregate profits rose by around 11.6 per cent. Excluding mining and energy, however, the increase was just 5.3 per cent. Only 36 per cent of companies beat earnings expectations, below the historical average of about 40 per cent. Meanwhile, analysts have been cutting FY27 forecasts. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast Q&A – 10 lessons for investors from reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 1, 2026
Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.
I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.
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The great Treasury swap (and why it matters)
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2026
If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:
“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”
It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Market state of play – and what to do
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.
And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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MEDIA
ABC Statewide Drive – Looking under the bonnet of a balanced portfolio
Roger Montgomery
August 21, 2026
I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer offer investors the same protection they once did. We explored how persistent inflation has changed the relationship between shares and bonds, the growing concentration of global share markets in a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) linked companies, and why investors may need to diversify beyond traditional asset classes and markets by considering a broader range of investment strategies.
Listen to the full segment from 1:46:20 – ABC Statewide Drive continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Is traditional diversification still enough?
Roger Montgomery
August 20, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer provide the same protection for investors. We explored persistent inflation, growing concentration in equity markets, the risks emerging around AI and hyperscaler spending, and why investors may need to look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards alternative strategies, including private credit.
Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Why Roger thinks 60/40 diversification is dead continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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How Aura protects investors
Scott Phillips
August 20, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how Aura structures its private credit portfolios with multiple layers of protection aimed at preserving investors’ capital. Brett explains how this begins with selecting quality Australian businesses, rigorous credit assessment and tangible loan security, before adding further protection through lender equity that sits below Aura’s investment in the capital structure.
We also discuss the role of diversification across thousands of underlying loans, short loan durations of typically three to five months, and independent monthly risk assessments by Open Analytics. Together, these measures are designed to manage risk across the portfolio and provide multiple avenues of protection should a borrower experience financial difficulty.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.
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Why Australian Private Credit is different
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.
We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.
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How much!?!?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2026
How much do the artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers’ businesses need to make from selling their AI tools in order to generate a decent return?
The debate surrounding the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for big tech’s massive AI infrastructure expansion revolves around a core question: How much end-user revenue is required to cover hardware depreciation, energy costs, and capital costs?
With hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) on track to surpass US$600 billion- $800 billion annually, several prominent analysts, venture capital firms, and investment banks have published frameworks and scenarios to quantify the revenue needed for a reasonable return.
Here are a handful. You can decide whether the targets are likely to be met. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
