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Popular Analysis that has no value

 

Popular Analysis that has no value

In this video insight Roger discusses stock market analogs and attempting to predict what the market is going to do in the future. How effective are such analogs? Not very, because the companies that make up the market are impacted differently and because interest rates, government and central bank settings, labour and productivity are all dissimilar and the drivers of markets will cause a different reaction.

You can read more on quality companies here: Bull or bear case for equities, here are some quality companies

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Roger is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger brings more than two decades of investment and financial market experience, knowledge and relationships to bear in his role as Chief Investment Officer. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.

This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.

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3 Comments

  1. Russell Leadbetter
    :

    Could you please notify me of follow up comments to my last comment via email. Thanks.

  2. Russell Leadbetter
    :

    Hi Roger, I bought the first edition of value-able and have found it to be a real gem and have found your tables especially good at valuing those great growth stocks such as CSL which I have owned for years. I was recently revaluing it using your tables & was wondering what the investors required return after tax would be. In the book you recommend 9% for a stock like CSL, but in this time of ultra low interest rates are analysts using a much lower rate of return. If so do you have tables that provide lower required rates of return down to say 5%. Cheers Russell

    • Hi russell, Yes it would be appropriate to lower the hurdle rate given current ultra low levels. I will publish a table again for Value.able readers with lower discount rates.

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