Energy / Resources
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Burying your head in the mineral sand…
Roger Montgomery
March 25, 2013
Last week, The Australian Financial Review’s Angus Grigg and Jamie Feed wrote a neat summary of the growing cries of concerns around China’s economy.
We summarise as follows:
– Dong Tao, Chief Regional Economist at Credit Suisse says there is “no good news to report on China…the Chinese economy is struggling”
– Greg Lilleyman, RIO’s President of Pilbara Iron Ore Operations says “additional exports and a slowing in steel demand growth would hurt the price in tens second half of the year”
– Andy Xie says “This is not good news for Australia” and “the Australian housing market and dollar were vulnerable to slowing growth in CHina, which could fall as low as 5 per cent in coming years”
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Wrestling with Resources
Tim Kelley
March 18, 2013
I noted with interest Anton Tagliaferro’s comments in today’s AFR, lamenting the apparent lack of shareholder focus shown by boards of directors in the resources and energy sectors. Reading these comments, it struck me that the boards of these companies are no doubt plagued by the same issues that confound value investors looking at these types of businesses.
As value investors, we aim to acquire an interest in a business when we can see that the value of the business is greater than the price we need to pay to own it. At Montgomery, we are concerned also with quality and a host of other factors, but let’s focus for the moment on value.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Listen Up
Roger Montgomery
March 18, 2013
As you know we have long been short Iron Ore. That was clever! “…long been short…”?
Jokes aside, many investors are still buying mining and mining services companies. Their reasoning is that they have underperformed the financials and non resource cyclicals. The rationale is that because they have under performed it is time for them to catch up. Well as you know, I think that is a bit like entering a Formula 1 race with a billy kart and a couple of friends to give you a push. Just because the billy-kart has lost the last 1000 races doesn’t mean its time for it to win. An F1 car accelerates from zero to 150kmh in 1.4 seconds. No matter how hard your friends push, your billy cart simply isn’t going to match it.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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MEDIA
Back to all time highs
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2013
In discussion with Ross Greenwood on Radio 2GB, Roger discusses how on a total-return basis the Australian stock market is back to pre-GFC levels, and also provides his insights on Silverlake resources. Listen here.
This program was broadcast 12 March 2013.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Radio.
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MEDIA
What impact will the changing Global Economy have on Aussie Stocks?
Roger Montgomery
March 7, 2013
In these highlights from the Sky Business Switzer program broadcast 7 March, Roger provides his insights on how recent developments in U.S. interest rate policy and Chinese domestic construction are likely to impact the Australian market. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Wylie E. Coyote or Road Runner?
Roger Montgomery
March 7, 2013
You will have to forgive the rather startling image we have chosen for this blog post. Its really been selected for dramatic effect only.
You may not realise this but all the way back in August 2010 we were BHP bulls, writing; “If you take on blind faith a A$22b profit, BHP’s shares are worth AUD $45-$50 each.”
But then in February 2011 we became a little more circumspect. You can read about the change here.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Investing Education, Value.able.
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MEDIA
Reporting Season Wrap
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2013
In these highlights from the 27 February edition of ABC1’s ‘Inside Business’, Roger discusses with Alan Kohler the results of companies including BHP, Origin Energy and Qantas. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Tourism, TV Appearances, Value.able.
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Swapping leaders 101
David Buckland
February 25, 2013
Jennifer Hewitt’s article in last Thursday’s Australian Financial Review entitled “Swapping leaders 101” focused on the relatively sudden departures of RIO’s Tom Albanese and BHP’s Marius Kloppers. The Sydney Morning Herald claimed “outgoing BHP Billiton Chief Executive will take cash, shares and performance rights worth up to $75.2 million at current prices”.
We believe the timing of the departures was to draw attention away from the substantial erosion in returns and profit, however some discussion about remuneration is warranted.
Andrew Smithers, the author of Valuing Wall Street, makes the following point,
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Marius Kloppers’ scorecard
Roger Montgomery
February 22, 2013
Earlier this week I was interviewed on ABC Radio’s PM program about the announcement of Marius Kloppers’ departure from BHP.
Read the transcript below or listen to the interview here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Value.able.
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MEDIA
Which Energy Stocks Does Roger Rate?
Roger Montgomery
February 21, 2013
In the highlights from this edition of Peter Switzer’s Sky Business program broadcast 21 February 2013, Roger provides his latest insights into Origin Energy (ORG) and BHP (BHP), and also explains how applying his Value.able investment strategy still makes Wesfarmers (WES) a stock that Montgomery Investment Management won’t hold in the near term, despite its price recovery. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, TV Appearances.
