Reporting Season – it won’t be much of a celebration!
Over the next 20 business days, approximately 1,250 ASX listed companies will be reporting their full year (or interim) results to 30 June, 2012.
Twelve months ago, the consensus forecast for the year to 30 June 2012, was for 20% growth in earnings per share.
Over the past twelve months that number has been progressively downgraded to nil, nought, nothing.
For the year to 30 June 2013, the consensus forecast currently stands at 15% growth in earnings per share.
Insights from the outlook statements will be interesting and it wouldn’t surprise us to see consensus earnings per share growth forecasts for the year to June 2013 to follow the same downtrend as those for the year to June 2012.
At Montgomery, we will be using our proprietary fact-based investment process to analyse the results.
We hope this reporting season will alert us to some new companies which own extraordinary businesses trading at a discount to their estimated intrinsic value.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Andrew Legget
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And it appears you are once again bang on the money Roger.
Headlines today regarding Harvey Norman profits could dive by about 40% due to price deflation etc.
“Harvey Norman said sales for the 2011-12 financial year totalled $5.74 billion, a fall of 7 per cent. After stripping out the impact of new store openings, sales were down 6.5 per cent.
Its comparable store sales growth in the flagship Australian network of shops has worsened through the year, going from negative 2.8 per cent in the first quarter, minus 9.5 per cent in the second quarter, down 7.7 per cent in the third quarter and 7.3 per cent weaker in the fourth quarter.”
This would be a pretty good indicator as to what we could expect from JB Hi Fi as well i think as they are in the same market (with less focus on property development however).
Also expecting horror results from Myer and DJ’s as well.