How to profit from reporting season
Reporting season can be brutal for businesses affected by cyclical factors, like the current residential building slump. But experience tells me it’s also a great time for investors to take note of out-of-favour companies that should rebound when the cycle turns up.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Tom Newton
:
Rog, What do you think about the RBA’s likely interest rate reductions? I think that lower rates mean higher asset prices, means lower returns on investment, means less investment, means slower economy. Have I lost the plot? Where is the long term solution to this slow economy? Low rates and QE didn’t work during the GFC in Europe.
Roger Montgomery
:
I met with the RBA over a private lunch earlier this week. What was telling was that everyone wanted to know WHEN rates would go to zero not IF they would. What I have learned from investing is that when everyone agrees it is probably wrong. Last year when US inflation was 3% 100% of US fundies thought inflation would rise. Today inflation is 1% and guess what? 80% of fundies believe inflation will fall. WIth respect to lower interest rates, their role is to keep people employed via business investment but if that investment is in technology to replace labour then lower rates mean fewer jobs and event lower rates. Yes to higher asset prices but we reach a point where asset prices are too disengaged from earnings.