Market commentary

Michael Mauboussin is one of the world’s leading investment strategists. His recent paper focuses on how to anticipate revisions in expectations, which he regards as the key to generating attractive investment returns. We’ve provided a link to his analysis, which we think is critical reading for every serious investor. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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A fun fact for you today.  Did you know that in naturally occurring collections of numbers, the first significant digit is likely to be small? continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.

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When holding cash, it is tempting to believe there was always something to buy. Sadly, because our criteria for quality and value are so high, there are days and weeks when we come into work and there is precious little investing to do. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Stocks We Like.

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In the year to 30 June 2016 the Australian All Ordinaries Index declined by 2.6 per cent to 5,310.4 points. The current environment is somewhat challenging for investors. continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Market commentary.

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As a long-term investor I know our clients will do just fine if we own shares in companies able to reinvest capital at high rates of return.  If I auctioned a $100 million bank account earning an enduring 20 per cent interest rate, I would receive more for it than a bank account with $10 million earning the same 20 per cent. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Cash. For such a simple investment, it can cause an awful lot of grief. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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One of the most common questions we’re asked here at Montgomery concerns the timing of one’s investment, be it an initial amount or a further contribution. “Should I invest now or wait until later, when hopefully the market falls?” continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.

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We often write about what we don’t like. Individual companies that are expensive and those in industries we believe are being fragmented, disrupted or in structural decline are the topics you will usually find here. Today, however, I want to lump the entire market into the ‘Don’t like it’ bin. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Whether it’s art, collectible cars, or shares in a company, your returns are determined by two things – quality and price. And the higher the price you pay, the lower your return.  It’s an aphorism that‘s stood the test of time – probably because it’s mathematically irrefutable.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The increase in corporate debt in the US has mostly been deployed on financial engineering – share buybacks (at expensive multiples) and Mergers & Acquisitions (at expensive multiples). Precious little has been employed for productive use.  And given the aggregate US corporate debt has a percentage of GDP at more than 380 per cent and cash flows as measured by EBITDA have been declining since their peak in 2010, it suggests there is little capacity to borrow more to fund growth projects.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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