Economics

Back on April 14th, we wrote the following column. Once again, it proved prescient.

Having taken some profits in overstretched retail stocks and having avoided mining services and mining completely (other fund managers have not been so fortunate) The Montgomery [Private] Fund has 45% of its portfolio in cash ready to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. Investors are in the fortunate position of having almost half of the portfolio in the safety of cash.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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Part two of a two part series on the demise of Australia

Last week, we began our ‘Australia on the Precipice’ series and argued that our nation’s future looked bleaker than many were currently anticipating. Since then the stock market has slumped as has the Australian dollar and the RBA capitulated to growing economic headwinds and lowered Australia’s benchmark rate to 2.75%—an all-time low. Keep in mind all of this can turn around in an instant, rendering us completely wrong!
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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Part one of a two part series on the demise of Australia

Last week’s year-six father and son breakfast was never expected to throw up any investment ideas. Indeed, I was so focused on the kids that I wasn’t even listening out for investment insights when one hit me, or, to be more accurate, brushed gently before me.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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Kopi Luwak refers to the beans of coffee berries once they have been eaten and excreted by the Asian Palm Civet. Passing through a civet’s intestines, the beans are then defecated with other fecal matter and collected, dried and eaten or drunk… or perhaps eaten by drunks.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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At Montgomery, we focus more of our attention on the economics of individual businesses, rather than the macro business environment. We do this because we believe it’s very hard to forecast macro variables with any reliability, and we know that the best companies can do well even in a difficult environment.
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by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics.

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Tonight should see the European Central Bank’s Governing Council cut its benchmark rate to a record low 0.5 per cent.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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Australia’s triple AAA credit rating, strong commodity exports and high interest rates have meant that many have enjoyed the benefits of a high Australian dollar.

Variously described as the Little Aussie Battler, Pacific Peso and the Aussie Ringgit, the Australian currency has now traded for the longest period of time above parity against the US dollar since it was floated in 1983.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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It has always amused us that China, with 1.34 billion people (19 per cent of the world’s population of 7 billion) and with an economy of US$8.5 trillion (12 per cent of the world’s GDP of US$70 trillion), can produce their GDP growth rate within days of the quarter end.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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As you know, we have been barking loudly about a deterioration in China for two years. For investors however, it is often less important that fundamentals are deteriorating, and more important that sentiment isn’t. But sentiment does appear to be deteriorating too.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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In these hightlights from the Switzer Report, Roger gives his views on the situation for Australian mining share prices in light of pressure coming from China as their economy slows down and their foreign exchange reserves decline. Watch here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, TV Appearances.

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