Will QR become T3?
The pending float of QR National will stir up plenty of memories. Some good, some bad. Its time to crunch some numbers. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Eamon
:
Thanks Roger, I’ll past on it than. Ive been doing some shopping today snapped up a good dose of QBE Insurance share@ 17.12!
“fingers cross”
It seems the shares being sold down by some large institutional holder, I just have to wait until they compete their disposal soon?
Though if it keeps going down, I know my dad wont be really happy!
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Eamon,
Thanks for sharing that. Remember everyone, seek and take personal professional advice. Be appraised of all the risks.
Grant
:
Hey Roger,
Dont want to harp on an old issue…but is the general consensus now that we should be focusing on our forecast IV for 2011 when considering the appropriate purchase price if we have found a suitable stock?
I.e. find the 2011 IV and then multiply it by say 0.85 to get a suitable discount…?
Would this approach be correct? or should I be doing this process with the 2010 values just released.
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Grant,
I am now looking at 2011 valuations. Discounting by 15% when there is 8 months to go before year end seems harsh.
Eamon
:
should we get into this business base on your valuation Roger?
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Eamon,
Capital intensive, low ROE, high operating leverage…lets wait until the prospectus comes out but I don’t think it will tick all the boxes. Of course that does not preclude the share price from doubling. I cannot forecast that.
Greg Mc
:
Even before looking at the numbers it’s probably worth pondering whether a cash strapped government is going to do anything other than dress it up to be better than it is and squeeze every last cent out of the float.
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Greg,
ALternatively they may want to be seen to generous and leave something on the table to aid re-election.