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Why it’s so hard to pick the market direction right now

22062020_Bull or bear?

Why it’s so hard to pick the market direction right now

In a recent interview, Peter Switzer asked me if I was a bull or a bear. It’s a simple question, but one that requires a nuanced response. Because these are complex and unprecedented times for investors.

Had Peter asked me that question prior to February, I would have said a bear. During the sell-off, we were much more bullish, and in fact we spoke to many of our clients suggesting they speak with their advisers about adding to their investments in equities.


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Roger is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger brings more than two decades of investment and financial market experience, knowledge and relationships to bear in his role as Chief Investment Officer. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.

This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.

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  1. Roger, I think the riots in the US and the rapidly increasing political polarization is now becoming the central crisis. I don’t usually bother listening to Australian news (mostly a waste of time) but I get the feeling that what is happening is being way under-reported and we don’t really understand what is going on. Maybe your US sources have some insights?

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