WHERE TO NEXT? (5/2/2013)

14 Comments

1. 

   bruce.bello.1
   February 21, 2013 at 8:56 pm:

   Hi Roger, interesting and most valid perspective on this. Having said that , I’d like to share with you my scenario . I’m a 33 year old who has always salary sacraficed extra into Super, tuning it on a regular basis since a young age. I now have $110K . Average , maybe slightly better than average if you think about it, and have started my own SMSF, with the objective of purchasing property. Start up costs someone mentioned earlier, bank fees-$1500, Accountants fee for Corp Trust – $1250, Lawyers to set up Bare trust – $1200, and miscellanious – say $1000. Bank’s LVR for Corp Trust is 80%, Rate can be fixed for 2 years at 5.34%, and rental return on a $400k townhouse is $400 pw ( $20,800 per year ) . Not too mention that the balance of my Super is invested in Blue Chip shares & fund managers also to diversify this baby. Moral of my story, I think Super can be quite an insight for our age demographic, and exciting at the same time when the mix is
   working from various angles.

   • 

     Roger Montgomery
     February 25, 2013 at 3:39 pm:

     Well done Bruce. Hopefully the rules don’t change.

2. 

   Andrew Legget
   February 6, 2013 at 9:31 am:

   If the rba has their way, money should start flowing into the economy soon from their rate cuts. The question is, how long will people pocket it rather than spend. This video I really enjoyed as it helped me understand thought processes used by a fund manager and want to thank you, Russell and Tim for the ones on here. The low interest rates leading to money flowing into the share market a thing I was thinking about a few months ago and the effect this might have on the affordability of the market. I also think in most cases this money will flow to “blue chips” meaning that the indices will get more expensive and there for value will be found more at the smaller end where ex-term depositors believe he risk is greatest.

   The industries you mention fall right into my circle of competence. I still struggle these days to see from a business perspective where the quality in retail lie. Oroton, woolworths is obvious, I am still positive on jbh but not sure who else. DJs and Myer still have some deep issues, premier has some good brands but as a whole they just don’t Satisfy me, HVN is the poorer performing cousin of JBH etc. Maybe I am being to picky but Aussie retail appears to be a bit, not complacent, but ripe for a shake up and need managers who are willing to challenge managers with a 1990’s retail model. The entrance of top shop to complement Zara in sydney will be a good test for the smaller fashion retailers and the two department stores.

   • 

     Andrew Legget
     February 6, 2013 at 2:59 pm:

     Just finished having a discussion on Aussie retail and my wife came up with a great term I thought I would share.

     Economic bigotry- a refusal to accept new economic circumstances because of their preconceived ideas.

     I think it can be an off-shoot to creative destruction.

3. 

   kurt atherton
   February 5, 2013 at 4:06 pm:

   I don’t tweet or use Facebook is that where the comments have gone or is this blog not generating many opinion lately?.

   • 

     Roger Montgomery
     February 6, 2013 at 11:50 am:

     Hi Kurt,

     At one point I was going to turn off the comments altogether – there were just too many (sometimes more than 100 per hour) to respond too and it was attracting a type of person who felt the popularity of the blog was a great platform to denigrate others and promote their own service/tool/facebook page or whatever. I decided to be much more selective about the comments that are published and you may notice I am not always available to reply. It’s the reality of having the responsibility of presiding over the management of investors’ savings. Our first priority is capital preservation and that must come first.

     Having said all that – there are many tens of thousands of visitors to the blog each week so you are in good company.

4. 

   andrew
   February 5, 2013 at 3:08 pm:

   How about DJS? There seems to be some analyst commenting that it is a good buy….

   • 

     Andrew Legget
     February 6, 2013 at 9:16 am:

     I personally would need to see a big improvement in a number of areas before I consider DJS again. Their online store roll out is still not satisfactory and I have questions about management. They could be a decent buy on some metric as the last time I looked at them (a while a go) they had a pe of just over 7 and a high forecast div yield but they don’t fit my mould of a quality company at present. Not sure what Roger and skaffold have then as but I am not expecting much from them this year. My thoughts only.

5. 

   David T
   February 5, 2013 at 11:13 am:

   Widening the search, I am not seeing much value in general. Especially not high quality (A1-B2) businesses.

   • 

     Roger Montgomery
     February 5, 2013 at 3:49 pm:

     Hmmmmmmm…interestimng isn’t it. Bt I am not seeing an overwhelming level (in aggregate) of ridiculously expensive A1-B2’s either.

6. 

   Avito da Costa
   February 5, 2013 at 10:13 am:

   Dear friends at Montgomery, it seems that the link for the ‘Where to next?’ video insight segment is not functioning. Cheers, Avito

   • 

     Roger Montgomery
     February 5, 2013 at 10:48 am:

     Hi Avito,

     Seems to be working ok for us – can you try once more?

     Thanks,

     rogermontgomery.com support team.

7. 

   colin benson
   February 5, 2013 at 8:25 am:

   not working Roger

   • 

     Roger Montgomery
     February 5, 2013 at 10:47 am:

     Hi Colin,

     Seems to be working for us – can you try once more?

     Thanks,

     rogermontgomery.com support team.