Top Tips from a Cabbie (19/3/2012)
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Steve
:
“You can do very well over time ignoring us and following Skaffold. We have had our fair share of mistakes and Skaffold quietly stands, like a sentinel in our office, saying “I told you so”.
Roger, would you agree that simple models win…even when experts know the model? i.e. An investor is better off following a simple (but proven) model?
Roger Montgomery
:
Fewer degrees of freedom has proven many times robust.
Steve
:
Kudos for always speaking your mind.
Having said that…in my book – some of those you call “value” are momentum stocks…and NOT value at all. e.g. CCV, JBH…
Still, different views make the market…
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Andrew,
The chart is used it to help investors in The Montgomery Funds first so I hope you don’t mind if we make it infrequent Andrew. For more information about our Funds visit http://www.montinvest.com. I suspect at extremes we will be more vocal, as we have in teh past, and you will see the chart appear again. Skaffold’s Intrinsic Value line Chart for the ASX 200 is giving the same message…
I have now inserted the Skaffold image into a post for publication next week.
Matt
:
Hi Roger,
You mention that CSL is one of the current stocks that represent ‘good value’. However, in the video from 05/03/13 titled ‘Skaffolds True Blue Aussies’, a member made a comment that CSL’s Skaffold 3-year IV is around $51-52, compared to their current share price of around $58-59.
I understand you may not share the same view as the fact-based Skaffold, and im guessing Skaffold would take into account the future financial impacts/benefits of the current share buy-back on its IV. Apart from that, the recent appontment of a new executive director and directors buying more shares is the only significant business occurrence in the last couple of weeks.
In saying that, what is driving your differing view on the value of CSL compared to Skaffold?
Roger Montgomery
:
Much more optimism about the very long term growth in profits than most analysts. But remember the process we go through doesn’t mean we are right. Skaffold often proves us wrong. Often. You can do very well over time ignoring us and following Skaffold. We have had our fair share of mistakes and Skaffold quietly stands, like a sentinel in our office, saying “I told you so”.