Skaffold’s True Blue Aussies (5/3/2013)
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Jim Hasn
:
Hi Roger
Enjoyed your insights as always. I thought you were being a little harsh grouping MND with BHP and ORG. MND’s report only suffered due to 2014 outlook, but this is from a company that historically under-promises and over-delivers. I suppose the proof will be what they say in the next reporting season or 2, or if they come out with more contracts.
I think RIO also reported poorly.
Cheers Jim
Simon Stewart
:
Hi Roger,
Nice article and totally agree. The question I have is how do you judge when a good run on the share price has exceeded the intrinsic value of the company and it is time to sell, take a profit and sit back and wait for the inevitable correction before re-investing?
For example the 4 companies you mention from skaffold:
CSL : safety -37%, share price $59.90, 3 year value price $51.78
SEK : safety -38%, share price $10.25, 3 year value price $9.34
TRS : safety -38%, share price $17.33, 3 year value price $16.81
CCP : safety -23%, share price $9.80, 3 year value price $8.97
They would appear to be not good value to buy but are they good value to sell?
Simon
Roger Montgomery
:
There are many different approaches you could adopt. The option you select is often less important than the consistency with which it is applied.
Simon Stewart
:
Thanks, I think (though the reply does remind me of the British TV show Yes Minister)
Roger Montgomery
:
My job is done then?
Peter Chapple
:
Hi Roger,
Great video insight again this week. I have heard you many times comment on The Reject Shop being such an extraordinary business. But I was wondering, from late 2011 to June last year the share price fell from around $18 down to $10. Was there a plausible reason for this?
Thanks,
Peter
Roger Montgomery
:
Short term ye. Long term no. The market often treats that which is temporary as permanent.