Is a recession coming to Australia?
In these highlights from ABC1’s The Business, Roger talks to Ticky Fullerton about serious issues surrounding the prospects for the Australian economy. Does Roger think that a recession is coming to Australia? Find out here. See our Videos Page for more of Roger and the Montgomery team sharing their insights in the media.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Charlie Dalziell
:
For a guy who is a bottom-up stock picker, Roger is certainly making some big macro calls lately. Is Montgomery changing it’s style from a bottom-up security picker to a top down macro investor?
Roger Montgomery
:
Fret not. There are no economists here. We do have to think about the prospects for businesses and sometimes they are extraordinarily clear.
Tim S
:
You raise an interesting point here. I think the issue is one of definitions.
For a long time, the investment community has defined fundamental/ bottom-up as exclusive of technical and macro-economic factors.
I agree with it on the former (technical), whether that be charts or liquidity/ money flow (ie impact of QE), though personally feel that both types can be included in a process to add value.
However, on the question of what is fundamental / bottom-up, a deep understanding of macro-economic factors, whether they be domestic or global is essential. “Garbage in/ garbage out” best explains the value of models that don’t understand the broader context of our and the global economy.
I have had arguments for a number of years with domestic analysts on the likes of Fortescue, where the analysts only understanding of China was what Twiggy et al had fed them. If you think iron ore prices cant fall below $120, then Fortescue is a bargain. I personally wouldn’t go near it.
I also strongly believe that the ability to go to cash is essential for funds – whether they use a value, GARP or other methodology. If there are few stocks that fit your criteria, you need not be sucked into the hubris.
The Australian equity market changed materially in 2008, and investment products need to evolve (within their core philosophy) to derive superior returns. Alternatively, you might as well invest in an ETF!
Well done on the performance to date.
Roger Montgomery
:
Thanks Tim.
Chris
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A sneaky rug pull of Australians wealth, will be their unhedged Aussie dollars. Problem is the masses don’t even think about this kind of thing. haha There are ways to protect yourself and profit from the downfall of this overpriced city of Cafe and Gym ‘entrepreneurs’.
Asher Jebbink
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“Consumption, residential real estate or Government spending taking up the slack”
House prices grossly high, First Home Buyers NOT buying, Aussie dollar down (down, down, prices are down…), Government revenues lower than expected resulting in budget cuts anywhere and everywhere. So we have what to rely on, consumer confidence?
I think I’ll be following suit and moving my own money into the bank.