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With 30 per cent of the U.S. S&P 500 index trading at more than 10 times sales, and 13 per cent of the S&P 500 by index weight trading at 20 times price-to-sales (P/S) (a level that now surpasses the tech boom of 1999-2000), we’ll take a break this week from commenting further on market valuations and leave it to you to decide whether it’s wise to be fully invested in equities, or diversified.

This article was first published in The Australian on 21 November 2025.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.

Some of those behaviours have been reflected in the relative outperformance over the last month of defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities, beating technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and defence. And some of the same behaviours also reflect the changing picture of liquidity, which, of course, is the fuel that inspires all thematically driven rallies.

This article was first published in The Australian on 30 October 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.

This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

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I’ve long believed it’s the best system we have – socialism fails when it exhausts other people’s money.

But capitalism is far from perfect. We yearn for better infrastructure, healthcare, childcare, education, and aged care; yet the default approach to funding these essential services is for the government to take on debt and raise taxes, or to hope immigration drives economic prosperity.

This article was first published in The Australian on 29 August 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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In my article for Firstlinks, I explore whether a new brand of capitalism is emerging – one where governments take equity stakes in key industries to fund public services. Drawing on recent moves by the U.S. under Trump, I ask if Australia should consider a similar model to turn our resource wealth into broader social good, rather than relying solely on higher taxes or immigration.

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – Should Australia follow Trump’s new brand of capitalism? 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, On the Internet.

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When it comes to investing, I’ve always believed the most important thing is managing risk. Over the years I’ve learnt a lot about how to build wealth steadily, and those lessons are just as relevant for people in their 30s as they are for those approaching retirement. In this bonus episode of The Money Puzzle, I sit down with The Australian’s Wealth Editor, Julie-anne Sprague, to share how I developed my approach to investing and what it can mean for your financial journey.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, On the Internet, Podcast Channel, Press.

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There’s some early evidence the equity boom is entering a bubble phase.

Bubbles can last and keep inflating for a long time. Missing out can be costly, but predicting the exact moment of a bubble’s demise is a waste of time. So, the right strategy isn’t prediction but rebalancing and a little tactical asset allocation. That way, you can remain invested and still outperform, if only relatively, even if markets pull back.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 August 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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Let me explain.

Two forces are powering the bitcoin narrative, and investors need to decide whether they have enduring merit or are just the best current excuses for why bitcoin has run so hard.

This article was first published in The Australian on 20 August 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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