Over the last two years, I’ve been warning that the housing price and residential construction boom would end, leaving a bit of a mess. The big question now is not whether house prices will fall further. It is which other sectors will be impacted, and to what extent? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property

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Many economists believe that consumer spending is the most important short-run determinant of economic performance. Which is a worry. Because it looks like discretionary spending is heading south.

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by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary

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You’ve probably noticed that shopping centres are changing. Gone are some of the old, familiar stores, and among the mix are likely to be a few empty and boarded-up shopfronts. This situation is playing out across the country, and is reflected in the latest data, which shows the retail failure rate at alarmingly high levels. continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary

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The 2018 Black Friday shopping weekend is all but over and initial reports from US retailers, Wall St analysts and third-party analytics providers suggest a robust start to the holiday season, underpinned by 26 per cent year-over-year increase in online sales[1]. continue…

by Daniel Wu Posted in Consumer discretionary

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One of the more interesting stories in the market this year has been that of BWX Limited – an Australian company that manufactures body, hair and skin-care products primarily under the Sukin brand, and one the Montgomery team has previously written about. Sukin markets itself as Australia’s Number 1 Natural Skincare brand and is sold in both pharmacy channels and Coles. continue…

by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary

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Recently, Mega Millions mania has gripped the U.S. With a jackpot that eclipsed US$1.5 billion, there was a veritable scramble to purchase tickets before the final draw. When a prize pool reaches such an absurdly high level, we typically observe a change in ticket purchasing behaviour. This phenomenon has some takeaways for investors in the stock market. continue…

by George Hadjia Posted in Consumer discretionary

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The landscape for packaged food companies has markedly shifted in recent years, with a growing number of challenges for branded food manufacturers. There are presently a set of conditions that could potentially amplify the risk of private label products taking greater share from branded players. Below are some observations that should give pause to investors who hold a sanguine view on branded food companies. continue…

by George Hadjia Posted in Consumer discretionary

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Spare a thought for those in the business of brick-and-mortar retail in Australia. While never easy at the best of times, life is about to get a lot more challenging. From increasing costs of new distribution models, to slowing consumer demand: it’s a double-whammy of headwinds that have only just begun. continue…

by Andrew Macken Posted in Consumer discretionary

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The US economy has continued to pick up steam over the last two years, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.9 per cent in August and wage growth sitting comfortably above 3 per cent. This has been good news for retailers, who have posted some of their strongest sales growth figures in years. continue…

by Daniel Wu Posted in Consumer discretionary

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While the Federal government continues to crow about the strength of the Australian economy, a worrying trend is occurring that is getting less attention: Australian households are saving less. Sooner or later, this trend will reverse. And when it does, consumer-oriented businesses will feel the heat. continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary

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