Consumer discretionary
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Evidence of our predicted retail slowdown is mounting
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2023
Over the course of the last twelve months, we have warned investors off consumer discretionary stocks, consistent with the positioning of our domestic equity funds and the posture of Brett Craig’s private credit funds, which have also been eschewing extending credit to the sector. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Adairs – real estate turnover AND slowing consumption
Roger Montgomery
June 17, 2023
The Australian homewares retailer Adairs Limited (ASX:ADH), is currently confronting the forces associated with a slowdown in foot traffic at its stores and a decline in online traffic due to declining consumption and falling turnover in residential real estate. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Thinking about retailers right now?
Roger Montgomery
June 14, 2023
Australian consumer-facing companies have faced unprecedented challenges and undergone significant transformation since the bushfires of 2019. From the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to violent mix-shifts from goods to services, and digital advancements, the sector has navigated a complex landscape. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Australian consumers tighten their collective belt (Part 2)
David Buckland
June 7, 2023
Twelve interest rate increases to the RBA’s official cash rate to 4.10 per cent (as at 6 June 23), in combination with a large portion of fixed mortgages transferring to a variable rate, has impacted Australian consumers and we’ve seen several discretionary retailers use the “confession season” to downgrade their profit expectations. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Universal Store’s share price plunges after trading update
Roger Montgomery
May 29, 2023
Sentiment remains extremely tentative. Good news is met with share price gains of one or two per cent but disappointment is met with market capitalisations falling by a quarter or more in a single day. That sentiment met Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) last week, as it released its trading update, which also offered insights into consumer behaviour and guidance for its Full Year 2023 result. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Is investing in a furniture retailer ahead of a recession a bad idea?
Roger Montgomery
May 26, 2023
While stocks have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, most investors are anticipating a recession either later this year or in the first half of 2024. Such is the extent of recessionary expectations, derivative investors are predicting at least three rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve or just over 100 basis points of cuts to the Fed Funds rate. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Not safe to re-enter still shark-infested (retail) waters
Roger Montgomery
May 24, 2023
Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments meet the end of government financial support and savings dry up. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.
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Is the Future of E-Commerce Still Bright?
Polen Capital
April 6, 2023
Three years ago, in March 2020, the head of the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. Immediately after, entire nations went into lockdown, upending life as we knew it. Amid the health crisis, people adapted to the “new normal” by adjusting their lifestyles and developing new habits. Fast forward to today, we can see that several trends which emerged during the pandemic were quick to fade, while others are likely to have long-lasting implications in the post-pandemic era. continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Consumer discretionary, Polen Capital.
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Hardly normal conditions for Harvey Norman
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2023
For big-ticket household items, established retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) is a bellwether company, offering insights into consumer behaviour and retail conditions, particularly in Australia. The company recently released its first-half results, and reactions were mixed. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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A tough road ahead for consumer discretionary businesses
David Buckland
March 2, 2023
In late-2022 Australian household deposits were $175 billion above trend, and this “extra cash” was largely in the hands of the 65+ years of age cohort. After many years of financial repression, these older Australians will enjoy earning a more reasonable return on their spare cash. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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