articles by Tim Kelley
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How to identify quality businesses (23/02/2016)
Tim Kelley
February 23, 2016
by Tim Kelley Posted in Video Insights.
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What are you thinking?
Tim Kelley
February 11, 2016
Equity markets have been skittish lately. Since the start of 2016, the ASX200 is down around 9 per cent, with particular pressure being felt by the major banks that make up a large part of the index, but price declines are also being felt more broadly, driven by a range of global macro and liquidity concerns. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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A new CEO at Infomedia
Tim Kelley
February 3, 2016
Like many readers, we have been keen to see the installation of a new CEO, and resumed focus on business growth, at Infomedia. We saw some progress on this front last week, with the announcement that Jonathan Rubinsztein will assume the role from 14 March, 2016. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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What is the Lindy Effect?
Tim Kelley
January 29, 2016
The Lindy effect is a theory on the life expectancy of non-perishable things. The concept is that for certain types of non-perishable things, the remaining life expectancy can be estimated from the amount of time something has already been around, with increasing age implying increasing remaining life expectancy. This clearly doesn’t work for living organisms, whose remaining life expectancy declines the longer they have been around, but it can provide a useful perspective on non-living things like ideas, technologies, businesses, buildings etc. For example, if a book has been in print for 40 years, you might reasonably expect it to be in print for another 40 years. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Is the market making you miserable?
Tim Kelley
December 16, 2015
A number of people have commented to me recently about the miserable state of the equity market. This is understandable, given that the ASX200 has fallen below 5000 points, having threatened 6000 points earlier in the year, and losses are always painful. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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IPO incentives
Tim Kelley
December 8, 2015
New listings have added some interest to the local equity market in recent times. There have been some outstanding successes, like Aconex and Veda, and some major disappointments like Dick Smith and Spotless. Most have been somewhere in between. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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What is the highest quality business on ASX?
Tim Kelley
November 24, 2015
Regular readers will know that the first question we ask in evaluating possible investments is usually a question about business quality. We take the view that over long periods of time, high quality businesses are far more likely to deliver the sort of investment performance we are looking for in terms of investment growth with a low risk of loss of capital. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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A Scenario to Consider
Tim Kelley
November 18, 2015
This chart from the latest RBA Chart Pack shows (on the left hand side) the level of debt held by Australian households as a percentage of disposable income. As you can see, debt levels have been on something of a bender for the last few decades. Associated with this, we have seen excellent growth in mortgage books for the big four banks, and a generally chipper residential property market. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights.
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Is there value in the market? (10/11/2015)
Tim Kelley
November 10, 2015
by Tim Kelley Posted in Video Insights.
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On Position Sizing and Hedge Funds
Tim Kelley
November 9, 2015
Consider the casino business: The casino enjoys a small statistical edge over the punter, and uses it ruthlessly. While the outcome of any single game could easily be a win or a loss, that statistical edge becomes overwhelming when a large number of games is played. The punters, in aggregate will inevitably lose. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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