What if we get a vaccine but people refuse to be jabbed?
Global share markets are being held aloft partly by the hope of a coronavirus vaccine coming sometime soon. But new research shows many people – including around 50 per cent of Americans – could refuse to get a jab. If that happens, then is it possible that what we are now living through will be the new normal?
Let’s suspend the very real possibility that a vaccine is not developed for many years, if ever.
Around the world, approximately 180 COVID-related projects are underway and more than 100 vaccines are being developed. Fifteen are reported to be in clinical trials, and according to the World Health Organisation, just four – from Moderna, AstraZeneca, SinoVac, and Pfizer, have entered critical and final phase-3 mass human trials.
US Health and Human Services Secretary, Alex Azar, was recently reported saying it is “realistic” to expect a coronavirus vaccine in the northern hemisphere’s Autumn, and that it is “very credible” to expect “tens of millions of doses” to be widely distributable by the end of the year, with “hundreds of millions” available in 2021.
The United States has six vaccines in which a major investment has been made. Four of those have reported positive Phase 1 clinical trial results and two are in final Phase 3 studies.
But is it reasonable to assume that a vaccine, if developed, will be accepted by communities? Or is it wiser to assume a large number of unvaccinated individuals will continue to spread the virus amongst themselves, endangering a return to normal economic activity?
According to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey, only 42 per cent of Americans say they plan to be jabbed with a coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available. And the number has been trending lower. In early May, 55 per cent of individuals polled said they would take the vaccine. By late May that number had fallen to 50 per cent and in July just 46 per cent were willing to take the vaccine.
When the respondents were divided along political lines, 55 per cent of Democrats now plan to be vaccinated, while just 37 per cent of Republican supporters plan to be vaccinated, and only 34 per cent of US independents are willing.
The thinking among anti-vaxxers is perhaps best articulated by assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, Natalie Dean, who was quoted as saying, “I’m a vaccine researcher, and even I would place myself in the ‘not sure’ bucket” adding, “The evidence that would convince me to get a COVID-19 vaccine, or to recommend that my loved ones get vaccinated, does not yet exist.”
Anti-vaccine sentiment once had a fringe presence in America, but social media and the need for individual uniqueness has helped both the movement gain traction, and in 2019 contribute to the worst US measles outbreak since 1992. 89 per cent of measles patients in 2019 were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status.
One cannot help but wonder how governments might respond if half the population refuses to be vaccinated. That possibility produces a range of scenarios I suspect the equity market has not yet contemplated.
Of course, while liberal democratic governments may use carrots to incentivise citizens to be vaccinated, less democratic nations may use sticks. In Russia for example, one imagines the anti-vaxxer movement might never move beyond embryotic.
The Russian trade minister, Denis Manturov, told the state-run TASS news agency that Russia plans to mass produce its leading vaccine in September, despite the fact its safety and efficacy remains questionable. Deputy Prime Minister, Tatyana Golikova, said this week that the Vektor State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology will start mass producing its vaccine in November.
Insiders claim Russian vaccine developers have trialled the vaccine on themselves and taken short cuts to make the Kremlin look good in what appears to be a race in national pride, similar to the space race.
Meanwhile, the US, UK, and Canada recently accused Russia of being behind attempted hacks of coronavirus research centres to steal COVID-related intellectual property.
Investors are buoyed by the hopes of an eventual return to normal as well as government largesse and central bank efforts to keep interest rates low. But have investors contemplated the possibility that ‘this’ is the new normal?
Around the world, approximately 180 COVID-related projects are underway and more than 100 vaccines are being developed. Fifteen are reported to be in clinical trials. How might governments respond if half the population refuses to be… Share on X
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Kingsley_Smith
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If 50% of a population does get vaccinated adding to those who have already got antibodies from the spread it should still give a Ro well under 1.0 and see the virus meet its demise albeit not quite as quick as if it was at say 80-90.% obviously.
Ironically it could be Australia and NZ that have the biggest problem as we would have so few who have been previously exposed. If the rest of the world does get rid of it however maybe that won’t matter.?
Roger Montgomery
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Thanks for sharing that point. I guess it also depends on whether the mere presence of antibodies confers ongoing immunity, and whether the virus morphs.
John
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People will watch and see what happens to the first lot of people that take the vaccine. If these people have no problems and covid remains a real threat most people will take the vaccine. Of course, there will always be deviations but that’s just a normal distribution. In other words, most surveys that are done are utter nonsense and do not correspond with reality.
Roger Montgomery
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Thanks John for sharing that perspective. It’s elegant.
Richard
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Hi Roger,
The following are the inert rambles of an ill-informed bystander.
If a vaccine is developed, and is available to the public, say, so cheaply it’s effectively free (I told you I was ill-informed) then some of the following may eventuate:
1. International travel may be limited in large part to those that can prove they have been vaccinated. Any documentation would likely be a modern equivalent of the yellow vaccination pamphlet I travelled around Africa with some time ago….. perhaps a credit card sized confirmation, perhaps an electronic trigger attached to passports.
2. Health insurance for covid related claims would be near on impossible to buy – and the exclusions would be prohibitive. Refer above regarding international travel.
3. Governments would ‘walk away’ from many health related claims of those that were not vaccinated as they would claim that vaccination would have prevented those problems. That is, unless anti-vaxxers gained such popularity that it became an issue a government could fall on. It only takes one issue that around 10% of the population believe to be crucial to their vote for many governments to become concerned, and this could be one of them. Unless of course, you are living in Belarus. Or Russia. Or Thailand, or Zimbabwe……. in fact just about anywhere on the African continent…… you get the idea.
4. There may well develop a ‘them and us’ mentality around those that choose vaccination, and those that don’t. Given the religious, political, racial, etc grounds that humanity is divided upon, that’s the last thing we need. However, with all that going on, perhaps we won’t notice another one.
There may be migration issues surrounding certain countries that are deemed to be safe, or sensible, or ahead of the curve. A surge of applications, not unlike what many UK residents did after the Brexit vote (applying for Irish passports) is possible.
Otherwise, business as usual, and the world will march on.
I do wonder, though, how we will be judged in the year 2120 by noted historians of the time. Hindsight. It’s the future.
Roger Montgomery
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Thanks Richard,
As you say “business as usual, and the world will march on”. That’s a positive for markets.