Where are the markets headed?
Predicting market direction is very hard to do. In this week’s video insight, Roger presents some of the facts via a series of charts to let you draw your own conclusions as to where markets are headed in the next 12-18 months.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
peter s
:
In a previous reply to a comment of mine Andrew implied that in exceptional circumstances the Montaka fund can go market neutral. You have for quite a while spoken of asset prices being extremely high which I have to agree with given your (and many other respected fund manager’s) analysis. I am just wondering what it would take for the Montaka fund to go market neutral assuming this is the agreed upon narrative, ie asset prices are very high, at the Montgomery Funds offices.
Roger Montgomery
:
Hi Peter,
High asset prices alone are not a trigger for a correction. High asset prices correlate with low prospective returns, but whether those low returns are accompanied by higher volatility is another question. What would it take? A catalyst!
jerome mellor
:
Roger, does the growth in money supply relative to margin lending have any bearing on this?
Roger Montgomery
:
Yes it does Jerome, as does the absolute market capitalisation of the market