One man’s trash is another man’s treasure

One man’s trash is another man’s treasure

One of the things that keeps the equity markets interesting is the way different investment attributes fall in and out of fashion. For example, in recent times we have seen a marked preference for large, dividend paying stocks, which we expect is a reflection of record low interest rates, and a quest for better income returns with low perceived risk.

A slightly less obvious development has been a move by the market away from high quality companies and into lower quality issues.

Quality has different meanings for different people. At Montgomery we have a clearly defined but unique set of rules that define quality. Other investors apply different rules to try to capture the same basic idea – essentially high quality implies a high likelihood of delivering consistent earnings, and a low likelihood of financial misadventure (and tends to be unrelated to company size or profile).

We were interested to see some analyst commentary recently highlighting that high quality companies have delivered lower investment returns than their low quality brethren of late. Our internal analysis using our own quality measures yields the same conclusion – the market has indeed been more enthusiastic in its support of lower quality companies.

The really interesting thing for us however was the way others interpreted this analysis. One line of thinking was that if quality is out of favour, then investors should avoid owning quality businesses and focus their portfolios at the other end of the scale.

Needless to say, this line of thought is not one we support. Rather than dancing to the tune of the latest fashion trend, we think it is preferable to have some fundamental principles and stay true to them. This might result in some short-term underperformance, but in the long run we have no doubt that it will deliver the right result. That’s a trade-off than anyone with an investment horizon measured in years instead of months should be happy to accept.

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Tim joined Montgomery in July 2012 and is a senior member of the investment team. Prior to this, Tim was an Executive Director in the corporate advisory division of Gresham Partners, where he worked for 17 years. Tim focuses on quant investing and market-neutral strategies.

This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.

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4 Comments

  1. Michael Shapiro
    :

    The current market correction in conjunction with quality stocks being out of favour might be the best combination for value investors. I suspect the correction will soon be over, probably one more week to go. Then get ready to load the boat on cheap quality companies, right before christmas!

  2. Paul Middleton
    :

    I think it is always wise to consider the following:

    “When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect”
    Mark Twain

  3. Seems quite strange, the markets not interested in quality so you shouldn’t be either. Instead focus on where everyone else is buying (which has already seen the share prices driven up). So in effect you end up with the situation of owning “bad” companies but also bought them at expensive prices. You don’t need to be seasoned investment pro to understand that equation is unlikely to yield a happy result.

    I guess it depends on your mandate and how much you need to “take a swing”. If you approach investing like a test match rather than a T20 then it just makes sense to wait for the good companies to become more valuable.

    I didn’t need the latest news to come to the conclusion that waiting for Woolworths to become more valuable is better than buying Qantas shares. Quality can be difficult to measure (not impossible though) but it is probably one of the most important things you can consider.

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