Is gambling a gamble? (10/09/2013)
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Daniel Rosenthal
:
Hey Roger,
Hope you’re well
What are your thoughts on FXL at around $4…do you have an intrinsic value or a view on future prospects?
Kind Regards
Dan
David Sanders
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Hi All
I don’t play poker machines so would appreciate insights from anyone who does or is experienced within the field. What is it that attracts patrons to one machine over another? In particular, why an Ainsworth machine?
Lloyd Durham
:
Hi
I am not sure what you are on about here I though that good practice was to sell on the high price and buy on the low price.
I have taken professional advice in the past and they have been totally wrong, the only time they get it right is after the event.
If you know of anyone that is capable in this field please let me know.
This was the reason that I first contacted the Roger Montgomery But it turned out he is not into this sort of thing
Regards
Lloyd
Roger Montgomery
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Hi Lloyd,
You are describing a trading scenario. We are most definitely not advocating trading.
Lloyd Durham
:
Hi
Can you tell me what is happing to McMillan Shakespeare MMS why they have been sold off so heavily.
Roger Montgomery
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Hi Lloyd,
One of our brokers told us: “A colleague of mine’s client own the number two novated lease company in Australia. He also owns MMS shares. He isn’t selling” Be sure to seek and take advice. Anyone would be very worried that you are watching so closely and allowing price to influence you. If it halved from here who would you blame? If the answer is anyone other than yourself, then you have not done enough research of your own to be totally responsible for the investment. Please seek and take personal professional advice.
Greg McLennan
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Here’s my 2c worth, Lloyd….
There’s probably a bit of buy the rumour, sell the fact. However the focus of some has probably also changed from the election outcome to MMS’s profit expectations for this year. Obviously they will be affected detrimentally and the company itself has said that it will be difficult to quantify for a while – they will provide a further update at their AGM.
There have been a number of journalists who have said that MMS will not be able to command the premium that it did previously now that their vulnerability to politicial whim has been exposed. Personally, I think that is overblown. Having made a big song and dance about restoring trust in government, I think there is zero chance that the Coalition will detrimentally alter FBT rules having just sent the industry a letter saying that they will leave them alone. I also expect that the Coalition will get a second term, possibly even a third, depending on how they go. Besides, for the political pain of altering FBT, the increase in tax received by the government is minor and not worth it.
So, given a few years, MMS will have had plenty of time to get back on track. I expect that their economic performance will become apparent and people will conveniently forget what they said about that irretrievable market premium (ask yourself how CCP was regarded by the investment community 5 years ago). I think there is a high likelihood of MMS taking market share from their competitors as they kept their structures in place rather than laying off the bulk of their staff. Look out also for MMS to possibly take over the odd battling competitor on the cheap in the near term as well.
In time, we may (may!) be able to look back and think what a wonderful opportunity the previous Labor government gave us. MMS might end up being far stronger for it with gains in market share and the odd acquisition. For now though, the quick share price gains have been had and the company now needs time for the economic performance to become apparent in the new environment.