Coalition in position to transition
With nine days before the election, SportsBet has made the unprecedented move of declaring the Federal Election a one-horse race and has paid out all bets on the Coalition. The betting agency considers that the implications of the odds were overwhelming:
• The Coalition are favourites in 90 electorates
• Labor are favourites in 56 electorates
• Katter’s Australian Party is favourite in 1 electorate (Kennedy – QLD)
• Independents are favourite in 1 electorate (Denison – TAS)
• 2 electorates are currently too close to call (Lyons – TAS, and Lingiari – NT)
• The Coalition are favoured to win 34 more seats than Labor.
While the latest actions by SportsBet do not guarantee that the Liberal Party will win, we believe that odds offered by betting agencies provide a better predictor of the election outcome than opinion polls.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
INVEST WITH MONTGOMERY
rmassera
:
Thanks Roger, you are quite right. This campaign (together with PM Rudd’s recent changes to caucus selection of an ALP leader) closely resembles a US-style presidential election with one personality pitched against another. It is concerning the public, and the press, appears to have forgotten we operate under a Westminster system of government in which the electorate votes for their local member and ultimately a party and not the leader of that party. This is a robust system that aids in the democratic election of a team.
Andrew Bell
:
For me the ridiculous length of this campaign has been the real bugbear.
I’ve seen reports from and personally spoken to business people who have seen their order books dry up after the election was announced in January and have remained flat ever since as many businesses and consumers have taken a watch and wait stance.
I can’t help but wonder what the our economic numbers would look like now if we had a traditional 8 week campaign rather than an 8 month one.
Australian businesses certainly don’t need the added challenge and climate of uncertainty that this super-sized campaign has essentially delivered and the Australian people sure don’t need 8 months to decide whom they wish to govern the nation.
Roger Montgomery
:
Good point ANdrew.
xiao fang xu
:
vote Ron Paul.
Andrew Bell
:
Either way it will be good to see an end to a campaign which seems to have been as loud and lasted longer the the London Blitz.
Roger Montgomery
:
And all the grace and dignity has been lost as we descend towards the US style presidential campaign. In three years time it will be ever worse, more personal slander and further disillusionment from the constituency.
Andrew Legget
:
Perhaps i am too much of an optimist, i think after this election-about-nothing we might finally start looking at ourselves as a country and relise that we are the key to things becoming better. We just need to stop voting AGAINST people and start making educated and well informed decisions on why we should vote FOR someone.