You’ve already heard enough about the Woolworths misadventures in recent times, but I couldn’t resist mentioning one recurring feature of their recent disclosures: “Investment in prices.” The most recent announcement makes reference to this investment four times in the first two pages. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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Here’s a striking chart. It tracks the share price of BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) over the past five years, together with the average analyst forecast for BHP’s FY16 Earnings Per Share (EPS) during that period. Unsurprisingly, the two have moved together. Also, changes to analyst forecasts have tended to follow changes to the share price. You might think it should be the other way around, but that’s a discussion for another time. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.

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In this video Tim Kelley, highlights some uncertainty in the property market and indicates that a correction is possible. He mentions the impressive business REA Group. Watch here.

by Tim Kelley Posted in TV Appearances.

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In this video Tim Kelley, Portfolio Manager of The Montgomery Fund looks at the recent share price fall of Infomedia that has been driven by uncertainty over short term factors as the company heads towards an AGM. Watch here.

by Tim Kelley Posted in TV Appearances.

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In this video Tim Kelley, discusses the strongly growing pool of superannuation assets in Australia. Watch here.

by Tim Kelley Posted in TV Appearances.

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In this video Tim Kelley, Portfolio Manager of The Montgomery Fund explains the three things he looks for before investing in a business. Kelley also gives insight into what determines when he exits a business. Watch here.

by Tim Kelley Posted in TV Appearances.

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There are many aspects of personal finance and investment that apply to all of us. For example, with a bit of application we can all find a sensible trade-off between spending today versus saving for the future; we can all determine an asset mix with a reasonable balance of risk and return; and we can all go about our investing in a tax-effective way to maximise the long-term benefits. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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Infomedia (ASX: IFM) has been going through a difficult period recently. At the time of releasing its full year results in August, it also announced the resignation of CEO Andrew Pattinson, effective immediately, and the retirement of long-serving NED Myer Herszberg. The company found itself in the awkward position of having a somewhat disappointing set of numbers to present, and no CEO to present them. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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In the next few weeks a small New Zealand based insurer – CBL Corp Limited – lists on ASX and NZX. CBL is a slightly odd beast in the insurance world: it focuses on small but profitable specialist niches, where it is able to earn significant underwriting profits. In contrast, mainstream insurers tend to write as much business as they can, even if it means taking on business that earns little to no underwriting profit. They do this because in the period between receiving an insurance premium and having to pay out claims, they can earn investment returns on the premiums written. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Insurance.

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If you haven’t already seen it, this recent memo from Howard Marks at Oaktree contains some very worthwhile insight into what it takes to beat the market as an investor. 

If you follow the investing media, you’ll recognise that the first-level thinking Marks refers to is as endemic as it is useless.

Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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