Are we experiencing bubble conditions? (08/07/2014)
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
mdturner
:
Roger:
Two things:
1) For the hearing impaired (such as I am), doing your presentation in a room that echoes such as this one did makes it VERY hard to hear (i.e. The echoes of your voice are very distracting with hearing impairment). Please fix that next time by either using a smaller room, or with sound dampening, or directly into a microphone in proximity to your mouth.
2) I don’t understand why you consider debut as NOT a marker when the US Fed is creating BILLIONS of dollars PER MONTH in debt (that WILL have to be paid back one day). So, perhaps in a future talk you can clarify this belief? Add to this that some parts of Europe in general and some others are basket cases. Due to the problems of 2000, 2004, and 2008 I have become VERY wary when financial types such as yourself say: “don’t worry … Yet …”.
Irrespective on point 1, please keep these going as they are useful (even if hard to hear :0) ).
Roger Montgomery
:
We will endeavour to do better on the sound. With respect to the bubble, our view remains ‘not yet’. We could of course be wrong and we don’t manage the portfolios based on economic or stock market forecasts.
Frank Lin
:
NYSE Securities market credit –
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3256&category=8
Roger Montgomery
:
DO you have the data for 2007 (pre GFC)? Or for the period before and after the 2000 crash?
Darren Guiver
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Hi Roger
first up on google search “margin debt usa” returned data from nyse in graph back to 1995 and looks like we have new record http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php
cheers
Darren
Roger Montgomery
:
Great stuff. There are too few observations to draw any conclusions and I suspect interests rates are playing a role but the data does show record margin loans…in the US. Excellent. Thanks for the heads up and for sharing the Url.
Greg McLennan
:
Nice piece, Roger.
Your term ‘grinding higher’ seems apt….there doesn’t seem to be a fear of missing out at the moment. Maybe its a reflection of the part of the world I live in, but the town taxi driver isn’t talking about the stock market yet and nor is it a topic of conversation among the self funded retirees at Rotary meetings. I’ll let you know when it is and then we can all scaper.
Roger Montgomery
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Ok. That’s a deal!
stuart.a.griffiths
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This appears to be from the NYSE data. Not sure if it is correct though.
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8
Roger Montgomery
:
It doesn’t really go back far enough however to be helpful. Need to see the pre and post 2007 (GFC) numbers…
stuart.a.griffiths
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Hi roger, I thought from what I have read that margin debt in the usa is at record levels. Is this not correct? Thankyou for your insights, regards Stuart
Roger Montgomery
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Can you source that? If true, it’s a marker!