When will the war end?
The question on the back of every analyst’s mind is when will the war end. Sure they’re promoting their key picks and hosting company briefings but there’s a cloud hanging over them and which they’re unable to escape. For those analysts confronting the conflict head-on will be looking for any signal in the noise. That requires moving past the usual diplomatic cables and TV talking heads and looking at unconventional sources of data where there’s skin in the game and exposure to the operational realities.
Prediction markets
While the mainstream media publishes the rhetoric coming out of the U.S. administration and out of Iran, prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi offer something arguably more tangible. Currently, Polymarket shows a huge disconnect.
Importantly, new accounts have reportedly been created since March 21 and have dumped nearly US$70,000 into bets that expected a ceasefire by March 21. If these accounts, which are also linked to wallets that successfully called the Feb 28 start date, are right, they stood to clear US$820,000 in just a few days.
Meanwhile (at the time of writing, on the 24th of March 2026) the market is also pricing in a 70 per cent probability of a formal ceasefire by April 30, suggesting the short, sharp shock theory is currently winning out over a prolonged conflict.
Maritime insurance premiums
Insurers at Lloyd’s of London have got to be as close to the coalface you can get. Premiums for the Strait of Hormuz initially spiked 1000 per cent, from US$625k to over US$7.5 million per transit. They are said to have now plateaued at 4-10 per cent of vessel value per VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) trip, at the time of writing.
The Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA) have clarified that coverage is in fact available, but ships aren’t moving due to “safety concerns.” Of course, the moment these premiums dip below 2 per cent, investors will conclude the war is effectively over for the global economy, regardless of what the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says.
One encouraging sign is Trump’s declared 10-Day pause. The White House extension of the pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes until April 6 means the administration has paused strikes on the ‘lifeblood’ of the enemy during an active war. One imagines that would only happen if the “very substantial talks” Trump mentioned are actually producing the beginnings of a framework.
Of course, the other view is that Trump thought twice about having his name and legacy being associated with an historic humanitarian catastrophe.
The inventory collapse
Iran’s on-water inventory, which peaked at 200 million barrels in late February, has plummeted to approximately 162 million barrels as of the 24th of March 2026. That’s a drawdown of nearly 38 million barrels in less than 30 days. Now, expert observers are saying that to move that much volume, Iran isn’t just selling oil, they’re dumping it.
If it’s a strategic liquidation, they’re trading their long-term energy security for immediate liquidity in USD/Yuan.
Tracking of Automatic Identification System (AIS), so-called, ‘dark’ signals near the ports of Qingdao and Ningbo is said to reveal a massive cluster of Very Large Crude Carriers ( VLCCs) offloading via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers.
And intelligence from Singapore-based bunker traders suggests these barrels are being moved at a US$18–$22 discount to Brent crude. If it’s true that Iran is settling for that kind of haircut it suggests they worried more about the clock and survival than the price, and are therefore in an uncomfortable position.
Domestic stability vs war funding
Linking Iran’s oil trading with reports of significant civil unrest in Tehran and Isfahan following the strikes earlier this month, might suggest the regime is using its ghost fleet to generate cash for bread and fuel price subsidies to prevent a total internal collapse.
Some would argue that you don’t empty your strategic reserves at a massive discount if you plan to fight a six-month war of attrition. You do it when you are preparing to pay for a ‘managed’ transition or a face-saving ceasefire.
At the current burn rate, Iran would run out of ‘extra’ liquid cash by mid-April, which aligns with the mid-April prediction of a diplomatic de-escalation.
Conclusions
U.S. political tolerance for this war is wearing thin. Trump’s Tactical Air Counter-Operation (also Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO)) was designed for maximum impact, not occupation.
However, the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in the initial strikes has created a power vacuum, putting the IRGC in survival mode’ as opposed to ‘extension mode’.
The combination of unconventional insights suggests we are entering the final phase, which is usually marked by heightened sabre-rattling. Polymarket traders are betting on an end to the conflict by today, March 31, but institutional insurance data and remaining strategic reserves suggest a phased de-escalation and mid-April 2026 conclusion.
Maybe there’s no grand treaty. Maybe the best we see is a quiet resumption of shipping and no final or hard end.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
He is also author of best-selling investment guide-book for the stock market, Value.able – how to value the best stocks and buy them for less than they are worth.
Roger appears regularly on television and radio, and in the press, including ABC radio and TV, The Australian and Ausbiz. View upcoming media appearances.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
