The Time Magazine cover curse
Time Magazine has awarded the 2025 person of the year to…wait for it…a group of people. The architects of artificial intelligence (AI) have been nominated for this year’s cover.
Before the advent of digital magazines, billions were spent annually on buying physical magazines representing every topic and subculture known to man. And magazine cover trading became a contrarian way to invest.
The thinking was that by the time an investment theme made it to the cover of a magazine, it was saturated and had already pulled in the very last of those who were ever going to buy. The appearance of an investment theme on the cover of a magazine coincided with the theme’s maturity.
The recent history of TIME Magazine covers demonstrates the point. It’s known as the “TIME Cover Curse”. Gracing the cover of the mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.
Statisticians would attribute it to regression to the mean. A cover story represents the absolute apex of public interest and influence; from that peak, the only way is down.
And the mag’s history is peppered with coincidences supporting the theory. Politicians who suffer landslide defeats following their features, business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny.
By way of example, Elon Musk appeared on the cover in 2021. In 2022 he bought Twitter, his reputation was hit, and he lost US$200 billion in net worth as the Tesla share price tanked 72 per cent from its high on 5 November 2021, to early 2023.
Another recent example is Jeff Bezos, who was TIME’s Person of the Year in 1999, right at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Amazon’s stock fell more than 90 per cent when the bubble burst in 2000.
That AI and its architects made TIME’s 2025 cover is an ominous sign for investors.
Image source: TIME
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
He is also author of best-selling investment guide-book for the stock market, Value.able – how to value the best stocks and buy them for less than they are worth.
Roger appears regularly on television and radio, and in the press, including ABC radio and TV, The Australian and Ausbiz. View upcoming media appearances.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
