Fear + Greed – What the year ahead holds for investors
I joined Seam Aylmer on Fear + Greed to reflect on the past financial year and explore what lies ahead for investors.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions (think the escalation of Trump-era tariffs, continued war between Russia and Ukraine, and the unfolding unrest in the Middle East), global markets have remained remarkably resilient.
In Australia, the banking, technology and consumer discretionary stocks performed strongly. The big four banks, which represent about 20 per cent of the ASX 200 are seen as a key driver of this positive performance. Most notably we saw Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) hit a record high. Some attribute this to the weaking view of U.S exceptionalism to their growing debt, Big Beautiful Bill policy turning foreign investors off U.S. Treasuries (forcing bond yields to rise), and lowered confidence in the U.S. currency. This has compelled some investors to turn toward Australian equities (like CBA) or alternative asset classes like bitcoin or gold.
We also saw a shift from investors buying into consumer led technologies, to foundational innovators (think MANGO; Meta, Apple, Nvidia, Google, and OpenAI), which reflects the growing importance of AI, semiconductors, and building-block technology.
On the downside, we saw Australian miners suffer, being dragged down by China’s current economic condition. China has been struggling with transferring from a fixed asset investment led economy to a consumption led economy. They are also staring down the barrel of a disinflationary trap. Consequently, the demand for Australian raw materials has declined, impacting mining stocks.
Given the ongoing volatility of the market, investors might find value in researching private credit, which is an asset class not tied to public markets.
Disclaimer:
The Polen Capital Global Growth Fund owns shares in Amazon and Alphabet. The Australian eagle Equity Fund, The Montgomery Fund, and The Montgomery [Private] Fund own shares in Commonwealth Bank Australia. This article was prepared 1 July 2025 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade any of these companies you should seek financial advice.
Listen to the full episode here:
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
He is also author of best-selling investment guide-book for the stock market, Value.able – how to value the best stocks and buy them for less than they are worth.
Roger appears regularly on television and radio, and in the press, including ABC radio and TV, The Australian and Ausbiz. View upcoming media appearances.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
