January 7, 2015
Over the next few days, we will take a look back at 2014 and highlight the most popular articles based on your views and comments.
The mention of house prices falling and negative gearing was a popular post.
In May, we talked Coca-Cola Amatil share price having declined by 40 per cent, and the duopoly that makes up Australia’s grocery retail landscape has putting the company on a strict diet of shrinking volumes, values and loss of market share to Schweppes and more particularly, the category known as “Private Label” soft drinks.
The forecast Australian population growth from 23 million to 40 million by 2060 bodes well for self-storage providers – and small-cap National Storage is no exception. We take a closer look at how the third-largest self-storage provider is positioned. Note, you will need to log in as a subscriber to see this paper.
December 24, 2014
As we start to turn our minds to enjoying a well-earned break, we wanted to wish you all a happy, safe and peaceful Christmas.
Thank you sincerely for following us in 2014, and for inspiring to share our investing philosophy with you. We hope our insights have informed you, provoked you and generally kept you up to date.
We are now taking a short break, and the team will return here to the blog in early-January.
If you would like to share your ideas about the topics, industries or companies you would like us to cover in 2015, we’d be delighted to hear them. Be sure to leave a comment.
Until then, may your Christmas be all that you hoped it would and don’t forget to be sun smart.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Value.able
December 23, 2014
One of our peeves at Montgomery is fund managers who ‘hug’ the index. A manager might for example take an underweight position in BHP by allocating 5 per cent of a portfolio to it, when BHP makes up around 7 per cent of the index. This leaves them with a 2 per cent underweight position, which can fund an overweight position in some other large cap stock. If they charge investors a fee of 100 basis points for this type of ‘active’ management, the investors are getting a raw deal. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able
December 11, 2014
Upmarket furniture seller Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) had an excellent financial year in 2014 with its success seemingly continuing into FY15. I’ve made a few notes on their outlook, whilst reading through the Chairman & Managing Director’s 2014 AGM addresses, which you can read in full here. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Value.able
December 10, 2014
There have been volatile times recently on the ASX. With prices for oil, iron ore and coal falling sharply, the mood in the resources sector has turned decidedly sour. Further, the negative mood seems to have been adopted more broadly by the market, with a wide range of stocks showing meaningful price declines. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Value.able
December 7, 2014
There are all sorts of coincidences that can be mistaken for signs that a crash is imminent. We don’t put much store in those, however it is never uninteresting reading about them. One that is gaining a little traction is something known as the Edifice Complex.
In conventional terms, the Edifice Complex is the desire to build lasting edifices or buildings as a legacy to one’s greatness. In today’s context, the Edifice Complex represents the historically coincident construction/completion of these buildings with stock market crashes. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property, Value.able
December 4, 2014
In this column published in the December/January issue of Money magazine, Roger covers why the benefits of fully franked dividends may have been overstated, especially when compared to the long term advantages to company from the retention and profitable reinvestment of earnings. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Value.able
November 28, 2014
Be sure to watch this video from March 2013 (almost two years ago) and then read on…
It only takes three or four minutes to learn about the forces of supply and demand and their effect on prices. It usually takes an entire semester to explain the forces of supply and demand to a first year university student so consider the few minutes you spend here a value-investing opportunity.
This week our friends at the ABC reported a painful situation in one of Australia’s important industries: “Activity in the resources sector continues to tumble, with a new government report showing investment commitments to major projects are now at the lowest level in more than a decade.” continue…
November 24, 2014
Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions account for the majority of Prada’s revenue, so it was no great surprise when Prada’s same store sales for the July 2014 half-year actually declined by 3 per cent on the previous year.
It is important to note that Chinese consumption accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global luxury goods, and around one-quarter of those purchases are made domestically and three-quarters are made when wealthy Chinese are abroad. The Chinese government’s anti-corruption and austerity measures will see pressure on the luxury goods market for the foreseeable future.
There will likely be a drag on Prada’s earnings from the planned store expansion (around 10 per cent or 60 stores) in the current financial year (to January 2015), the declining store productivity as well as the inventory build.
Another sector vulnerable to the aforementioned Chinese anti-corruption and austerity measures is gaming in Macau, and the October 2014 decline of 23 percent was the biggest year-on-year drop since the Macau government started issuing gaming revenue data in its current form in 2005.