Andrew Macken
Andrew Macken is the Chief Investment Officer of the Montaka funds and the Montgomery Global funds. He established MGIM in 2015 in partnership with Montgomery.
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articles by Andrew Macken
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Preparing for an alternative history
Andrew Macken
June 2, 2020
In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew identifies the economic cost from Australia’s ability to flatten the COVID-19 curve. If COVID-19 were not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did? Read here.
by Andrew Macken Posted in In the Press.
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The power of owning long-term winners
Andrew Macken
May 29, 2020
The power of compounding, or the “eighth wonder of the world” as Albert Einstein called it, can be counterintuitive sometimes. Small increases in annual returns, when compounded over long periods of time, result in very large increases in one’s investment. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Investing Education.
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What is our “variant perception” to the market?
Andrew Macken
May 18, 2020
First, it was Warren Buffett not buying stocks and, indeed, liquidating large portions of his portfolio to build cash. Then, last week, we had Stanley Druckenmiller tell The Economic Club of New York that “the risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.” As equity markets continue to rise, investors are slowly getting nervous about the upside potential from current levels over the short and medium terms. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Global markets.
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When counterfactuals are hidden and histories alternative
Andrew Macken
May 12, 2020
Australia’s ability to “flatten the curve” amidst this once-in-a-century pandemic appears extraordinary. Against numerous epidemiological forecasts of a healthcare calamity, including overflowing ICUs and thousands of deaths, it appears the spread of COVID-19 has been largely contained. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Market commentary.
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Equity market risk remains elevated
Andrew Macken
April 29, 2020
Earnings season for the first calendar quarter is underway and we are observing a large number of strange disconnects between stock prices and business fundamentals. We show three examples below and conclude that equity market risk remains elevated. Investor caution remains the order of the day, in our view. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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COVID-19 has created the mother of all binary risks
Andrew Macken
April 24, 2020
While COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis, first and foremost, it has rapidly become an economic crisis too. And for investors in financial markets, the recent period of extreme volatility has done little to calm nerves. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Market commentary.
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A middle ground in this crisis? Not likely
Andrew Macken
April 22, 2020
In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew discusses the market volatility from COVID-19. Investors need to decide how they want to play this binary risk. There is no simple answer here, but understanding the nature of this risk helps us frame the problem. Read here.
by Andrew Macken Posted in Value.able.
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Are equities disconnected from the real economy?
Andrew Macken
April 22, 2020
In this continually-evolving crisis, we update our investors again with a brief summary of how we are assessing the risks for our global equity portfolios. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Global markets.
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The oil war scaring the central banks
Andrew Macken
April 15, 2020
In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew discusses how the idea of deflation is particularly scary for policymakers. Today, we have the combination of a global economy that is being disrupted by coronavirus at the same time as a once in a three-decade oil price collapse. This will surely be received as a green light by policymakers to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at the problem, as we are now starting to see. Which is not to say it will be overly effective. Read here.
by Andrew Macken Posted in In the Press.
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Latest update on our global portfolios in the midst of COVID-19
Andrew Macken
April 3, 2020
For those interested in the up-to-date developments in our global portfolios, we wanted to share the following. As of Monday, March 30, we observed the following: COVID-19 data (daily growth rates in deaths and cases) shows clear improvement in Europe and Australia. Continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Global markets, Montgomery News and Updates.
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